Netherlands still at high risk of a terrorist attack; Young people radicalizing online

The risk of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands remains “substantial,” the fourth most severe threat level out of five, according to the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV). There is a “realistic” possibility of an attack, particularly because of the speed at which young people are radicalizing online, both in right-wing extremist circles and jihadist circles. The NCTV called the trend “worrying” in the semi-annual threat assessment released on Tuesday.

In the Netherlands, there are likely several hundred young people, some as young as 14, active in chat groups that either follow extremist-right perspectives far-right or radical Islamic principles. The NCTV considers the prospect of a “real chance” that young people who are active in such an environment “will put their money where their mouth is and commit an act of violence.”

Last year, young people were among those arrested for accusations of planning and preparing attacks. The police and the Public Prosecution Service have identified dozens of children and young people between the ages of 12 and 20 involved in various ways, such as distributing terrorist propaganda.

As in the previous threat assessments, the NCTV attributed the war in Gaza as an important driver for the jihadist threat in Europe. Groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda also use the conflict in their propaganda material, and try to incite their followers to carry out attacks in the West, the NCTV said. Young people who move in online jihadist circles come into contact with such groups “relatively easily.”

The willingness of new groups of right-wing extremists to commit violence, and acts of domestic terrorism has also increased, according to the NCTV. This movement “undermines the democratic legal order with its message of white superiority and hatred of minorities.” Some supporters also do not shy away from “racially motivated violence”.

Even self-proclaimed sovereigns citizens, people who have radically turned their backs on society and the democratic rule of law, still pose a threat of violence. For the first time, eight sovereigns are being prosecuted on suspicion of participating in a terrorist organization. Three of them are said to have been seeking “a violent confrontation” with local authorities.

Additionally, the NCTV said it has observed an increasing threat from people who are released from incarceration after a previous conviction for terrorism-related offenses. In the Netherlands, people with a “higher threat profile” than previously released convicts will also be due to be released next year.

The threat level rose from level three, “significant,” to the current level, “substantial,” in December 2023. The threat assessment is used by security organizations to adjust procedures, and enact additional measures, if necessary.