Dutch intelligence warns of stronger threats from China, jihadists and extremists

China is posing an increasing threat to the Netherlands as it works to become a world power, committing cyber attacks to undermine Dutch companies’ earning ability, among many other things. The war in Gaza is increasing the threat of jihadist attacks in the Netherlands and Europe. There are also growing concerns about polarization and political extremism, the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) said in its annual report for 2023

Like in 2022, the AIVD again warned that cyber attacks and espionage, especially from China, are posing a greater threat to the Netherlands. Many countries are carrying out cyber attacks in search of economic advantage and to strengthen their position at the expense of other countries, the service said. “That is not an armed struggle, but there is conflict. And it affects the Netherlands and its interests.”

The AIVD specifically noted that China is trying to undermine Dutch businesses’ earning capacity with cyber attacks, espionage, secretive investments, and illegal exports. And the Netherlands is only one of China’s targets in its goal to be a leading world power. “China is now actually able to bend global relations to its will. The consequences of this could be far-reaching for the Netherlands,” the AIVD said.

Discovering and preventing Chinese interference is a priority, the AIVD said. It will intensify its investigation into threats from China.

Previously, the AIVD also warned that quantum computing will one day be able to easily break into the encryption currently used on a wide scale to protect important data, including State secrets. In March, the service told NOS that countries like China are already intercepting data in the hope that they’ll be able to crack the encryption at some point. It is, therefore, important that organizations whose data will still be sensitive in a few decades’ time to already implement quantum-safe protection. Software developers need to work on that urgently, the AVID said.

Jihadism and Gaza

The war in Gaza is increasing the threat from jihadism in the Netherlands and the rest of Europe, the AIVD said. Western intelligence services prevented “at least a dozen” attacks in Europe last year. Arrests were made in the Netherlands in four cases, the AIVD said.

Although the number of jihadist attacks in Europe has decreased since 2017, the AIVD has warned every year that a “trigger event” could revive the threat. Last year had several triggers - Israel’s incessant bombing of Gaza following Hamas attacks, and Koran destructions in the Netherlands and other European Countries.

According to the AIVD, terrorist groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda are responding to these triggers with repeated calls for supporters in the West to carry out attacks. Western intelligence services discovered and foiled at least a dozen attack plans in Europe, including in the Netherlands. Plans ranged from randomly stabbing people to attacking specific events and buildings, the AIVD said.

Polarization and political extremism

The intelligence service again raised concerns about polarization and political extremism, both frequently mentioned as potential threats even before the coronavirus pandemic started four years ago. “The conflict in Gaza is, so soon after the coronavirus, yet another topic where people are diametrically opposed to each other,” the AIVD wrote.

The organization is concerned about how divisive issues can divide society and be used to fuel extremist political groups and those who want to commit acts of terrorism. “The conflict in Gaza in 2023 will lead to a hardening of extremist positions. And sometimes, as with jihadism, this contributed to concrete or conceivable threats.”

The organization noted the rise in anti-Semitism in the Netherlands as a result of the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Comments made by the leaders of extremist groups in the Netherlands “also contributed to fear among the Jewish community in the Netherlands.”

Intelligence workers also warned about another type of extremism, where anarchists and those against established institutions continue to either move away from society or are pushed away. “Municipalities, the tax authorities, the police and prosecutors struggled with how to deal with people who believe that laws and rules do not apply to them.”

This needs to be addressed both “with nuance” and “with urgency,” the AIVD said. “A small subgroup of anti-institutional extremists is receiving particular attention from the agency. This group is preparing to use violence against the Dutch government and institutions – what they see as the 'evil elite'.”

Earlier this month, the AIVD released a report with the anti-terrorism coordinator NCTV and police warning about this growing group of people who consider themselves “sovereign.” People in this group believe an “evil elite” is running the world and tend to turn their backs on government institutions. They also often distrust science and the media.

The authorities said that the group of “sovereigns” isn’t so large that they pose a real threat, but they are concerned about their growing number. The AIVD, NCTV, and police also noted that some are preparing online and physically to defend themselves in the violent battle they expect with the “evil elite.”