Utrecht shooting pushes voters towards nationalist parties : poll

The shooting in Utrecht on Monday that cost the lives of three people and left three other seriously injured is influencing the voting behavior of people in the Provincial States election today, according to a poll by Maurice de Hond. People voting for right-wing, anti-Islam parties FvD and PVV in particular are now more determined to cast their votes on Wednesday, De Hond found.

De Hond polled 3 thousand voters. 41 percent of them said that they are more determined to cast their vote following the events in Utrecht on Monday. This means that the turnout for the election may be higher than expected, with the PVV and FvD particularly benefiting. The shooting had little effect on voters for other parties.

The Netherlands is electing the members of the Provincial States on Wednesday, who in turn will determine the composition of the Eerste Kamer, the Dutch Senate. De Hond's latest poll has the VVD and FvD on the same number of Eerste Kamer seats, at 11 each. According to research into previous elections, PVV voters are less likely to vote in Provincial States elections than other parties. The latest poll has the PVV at 7 Eerste Kamer seats.

If the estimates in De Hond's poll turn out to be accurate, the coalition of VVD, CDA, D66 and ChristenUnie will end up with 28 seats in the Eerste Kamer, 10 below a majority. This means that the government will need the support of opposition parties to get any of their plans through the Senate. 

Forum even groot als VVD in laatste peiling #EersteKamer #DeHond https://t.co/8bxAPoL5hj pic.twitter.com/YFcdp9jui7

— Roel Schreinemachers (@RoelSchrein) March 19, 2019