Nearly half of Dutch lack confidence in government handling of rising defense spending

Nearly half of Dutch residents have little confidence that the government will properly spend additional defense funds in the coming years. That is despite the broad public support for higher military spending, according to a new representative study by the Clingendael Institute.

The findings come as the Netherlands increases defense spending and follows NATO’s new funding framework agreed last year at a summit in The Hague. Under the agreement, member states aim to spend 3.5 percent of gross domestic product on defense, plus an additional 1.5 percent on related areas such as cybersecurity and infrastructure, including roads and bridges, for a total of 5 percent of GDP.

“Support for higher defense spending is strong; people really see the necessity,” lead researcher Bart van den Berg told NOS. “But people do wonder whether Defense will manage to spend it properly. Concerns about whether the money is spent efficiently are legitimate. A very large amount of money is involved, so it is a healthy and realistic question.”

Van den Berg added that the results were not unexpected and align with earlier findings from the Dutch Court of Audit. In a report published in May, the Court of Audit found that the Ministry of Defense does not always properly follow procurement rules, including in cases involving large sums of money.

He said political leaders must respond clearly to concerns about how funds will be used. “It is a conversation about scarcity; the money has to come from somewhere else. I think clear communication about spending will be the major challenge if you want to maintain public support. There is a clear signal here,” Van den Berg said. He added that the Defense appears to take the issue seriously.

The study also found divisions in public opinion over the NATO spending target. Nearly one-third of Dutch respondents said the 5 percent target is too high, a view concentrated mainly at political extremes. Van den Berg said, “People wonder why that percentage is not higher or lower.” He added, “That is not the same as acting on it,” noting that engagement with those views remains important.

A smaller share of respondents said the 5 percent target is too low, which researchers described as a relatively unusual position given the scale of spending. More than 40 percent of Dutch respondents said the NATO benchmark is “exactly right.”

Van den Berg also said higher defense spending does not automatically translate into greater efficiency within the armed forces. “Defense is a steamship, not a sports car,” he told NOS. “It takes time to rebuild that industry. The faster you build, the more inefficiencies you will encounter.” He said overall support for higher defense investment is still clearly visible.

Public willingness to personally contribute to national defense is also notable, according to the study. Among people ages 35 to 64, half said they would be willing to fight for the defense of the Netherlands. Among those ages 18 to 35, the figure was 48 percent.

“The idea that Dutch people are not willing to stand up for their interests is not true,” Van den Berg said. “The closer it gets to home, the more people feel it.” However, Dutch willingness remains lower than in Finland, where more than 70 percent of people ages 18 to 25 say they would be willing to fight for their country.