Dutch worried about crumbling international legal order, Netherlands' resilience
The international legal order is crumbling into the law of the strongest prevails, and the Netherlands is not ready for it. That is Dutch residents' biggest concerns at the moment, the Clingendael Institute found in its annual Between Hope and Fear survey of over 4,000 Dutch people.
Clingendael has been polling people in the Netherlands every year since 2022 on which international developments they find most hopeful and most threatening. Geopolitical events often prove to be leading here. For example, Dutch people were most worried about Russia in 2023, the first poll since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
But the “erosion of the international legal order” has always dangled lower on the list of concerns, even when Israel and Russia violated international law in Gaza and Ukraine. Until this year, when the topic jumped from 21st place to 3rd place, behind cyber and physical sabotage of vital infrastructure, respectively.
The fear stems from recent actions of world powers, the United States in particular, researcher Christopher Houtkamp told NOS. “Great powers are adhering less and less to international law and could also turn against us.” He cites Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland and the abduction of the Venezuelan president as examples.
The Dutch are also very worried about the Netherlands’ resilience. A small majority expects that the Netherlands will not be resilient enough to withstand an international crisis in the coming five years. And they also think such a crisis is likely. 63 percent of respondents believe the international order will continue to crumble.
When asked what makes them hopeful, respondents cited the Netherlands’ plans to strengthen its manufacturing industry and better protect itself against cyber sabotage. There is also hope for a lasting ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Respondents also see hope in plans to increase investments in European countries' military capacity. Larissa van den Herik, a professor of international law who was not involved in the study, sees this as the most important factor for increasing resilience, she told NOS.
“What we must do is strengthen the European power bloc,” she told the broadcaster. “We need to cooperate much more internally and also bring in partners outside the EU. Think of Canada, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine; these are significant military powers. In this way, we ourselves become a power strong enough to fill the void currently being created by the U.S., and we can continue to support the international legal order.”
