CDA still climbing in the polls, now equal with GL-PvdA; VVD still losing support

With two months to go before the parliamentary election on October 29, the CDA is continuing its steady climb in the polls while the VVD continues to decline. According to the Peilingwijzer, Henri Bontenbal’s Christian Democrats are now about equal to GroenLinks-PvdA, while Dilan Yeşilgöz’s Liberals have dropped well below the 20-seat mark.

The Peilingwijzer is a weighted average of the polls by Ipsos I&O and Verian/EenVandaag by political scientist Tom Louwerse, reported by NOS.

The VVD now stands at 14 to 18 seats, a loss of about 8 compared to its current seats in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament. The party is also significantly worse off than the previous Peilingwijzer of July 30th, when the party stood at 20 to 24 seats. Party leader Yeşilgöz has lost significant support, especially after her attack on singer Douwe Bob this summer. She later apologized, but many VVD voters considered that too little, too late.

At the same time, the CDA is continuing its steady gains of the past two months under the leadership of Bontenbal, who said this week that he intends to be Prime Minister if his party becomes the biggest. A previous poll identified him as a favorite for the position among even non-CDA voters.

At 22 to 26 seats, the CDA is now about evenly matched with GroenLinks-PvdA, which has 23 to 27 seats. The PVV remains the largest party at 29 to 35 seats, which still represents a drop of about five seats compared to the current Tweede Kamer.

The BBB is now at 4 to 6 seats - a step back compared to its current seats, but a step up compared to the previous poll. All four parties from the original Schoof I Cabinet have lost support. The NSC, which currently holds 20 seats in parliament, is down to almost nothing (0 to 1 seat).

According to Ipsos I&O, the PVV has a relatively loyal base. They’re hoping their party will become the largest again, so that other parties can’t ignore them. The question is whether that hope will remain until election time. The VVD and CDA have already ruled out working with the PVV in the next Cabinet, and a team-up between the far-right party and leftwing GroenLinks-PvdA is not going to happen.

The only other party with ten or more seats in the polls is the D66, with 10 to 12. The different positions between the D66 and PVV have led to some spectacular clashes between party leaders Rob Jetten and Geert Wilders, so a coalition involving both seems highly unlikely. Right-wing party JA21 made some gains and is approaching double-digits at 7 to 11 seats.

These two are followed by the SP at 5 to 7, the BBB, and the animal party PvdD at 4 to 6. DENK and ChristenUnie both stand at 3 to 5 seats, and FvD, Volt, and SGP all have 2 to 4.

Political scientist and Peilingwijzer creator Louwerse stressed that much is still uncertain. According to Verian/EenVandaag, 30 percent of voters haven’t decided who to vote for yet. “All sorts of things can change during the campaign,” Louwerse told NOS. “Even many people who do pick a part aren’t sure yet. That’s why the Ipsos I&O poll shows that many parties still have room to grow. A poll is just a snapshot.”