VVD climbing in the polls, support for PVV, BBB faltering

The VVD is the only coalition party climbing in the polls. Support for the PVV is faltering, the BBB is quickly losing followers, and many NSC voters have already abandoned ship, NOS reports from the Peilingwijzer, a weighted average of the seat polls by Ipsos I&O and Verian/EenVandaag.

Immediately after the elections, support for the VVD dropped further. But the party slowly started climbing in the polls again soon after, and the advance has accelerated in the past months. The liberal party is currently at 25 to 30 seats in the polls, higher than the 24 seats the VVD currently has in the Tweede Kamer.

Political scientist Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Peilingwijzer, attributes the VVD’s rise to the current geopolitical tensions. Research by Ipsos I&O shows that voters see VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz as a politician who shows leadership in the areas of defense, peace, and security.

The PVV has dropped to between 28 and 34 seats in the polls, well below the far-right party’s current 37 seats in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament. Immediately after Geert Wilders’ sensational election win in 2023, the PVV rose even further in the polls. But the party has been in a downward trend for almost a year.

The BBB has been sinking rapidly in the polls in recent months. The farmers’ party now stands at 2 to 4 seats, compared to the 7 it has in the Tweede Kamer. The BBB is now as low as the NSC, which stands at 2 to 5 seats. Pieter Omtzigt’s party won a massive 20 seats in the election, but support quickly dwindled and the NSC has been low in the polls for some time.

The largest opposition party, GroenLinks-PvdA, is about equal to the VVD with 24 to 28 seats. That’s about the same as the 25 seats the left-wing combination holds in the Tweede Kamer. According to Louwerse, GroenLinks-PvdA is holding its voters from November 2023, but is struggling to attract new voters from the coalition parties. The combination mainly wins from other left wing parties, the SP and PvdD in particular.

The CDA is busy with a major comeback. After winning only 5 seats in the parliamentary elections in 2023, the Christian democrats now stand at 14 to 18 seats in the polls. The CDA is mainly gaining NSC voters.

The D66 is at 10 to 12 seats in the Peilingwijzer, higher than its current 9 seats in the Tweede Kamer, but a bit lower than at the end of last year. The SP has gained support since the new party leader Jimmy Dijk took over, but the trend seems to be slowing down. The party stands at 6 to 8 seats, above its current 5 seats and at about the same level in the polls as at the end of last year.

Among the smaller parties in the Tweede Kamer, the PvdD has gained support, standing at 5 to 7 seats in the polls, compared to its current 3 seats in parliament. There has been little movement among the rest. DENK, Volt, and ChristenUnie all stand at 3 to 5 seats. FvD and SGP are at 2 to 4, and JA21 is at 1 to 3.