KSA Market Report 2025: Growth, Decline or Shift? The State of the Licensed Market

The Dutch national gambling regulator, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), is notoriously strict with its legislation. In early 2025, it published a report on the future of regulated gambling in the country. Named “Vision on Gambling”, it set out the current state of the market and how it sees it evolving in the near future.

Growth in the Dutch Gambling Sector

The growth of online gambling in the country has been rapid. Introduced in 2021, the sector grew 28% between 2022 and 2023, rising to €1.39 billion in the latter year. Over the next five years, growth rates were predicted to be between 5.4% to 8% in the early 2025 report.

Aside from revenue figures, there are also other economic benefits the industry brings, which remain unquantified. Employment is the main one, although figures on how many people are employed in the country's gambling sector are hard to come by. There are also other online outlets that benefit, such as third-party media. Some of these allow players to check out the top Dutch online casinos ranked and reviewed by professionals. Providing a valuable service, they have helped provide transparency and have increased the level of customer service. All of these contribute to the overall industry ecosystem.

Projected Revenues Falling Short

So far, these projected revenues have been falling short, and some of the changes made by the KSA have been a direct result of this. Gross gambling revenue was 25% lower than in the same period a year before, according to a major trade body. This put tax revenue at 83% of the previous year's figure despite a higher rate.

The survey was conducted by the association VNLOK. Björn Fuchs, the Chairman, announced that this was mainly due to a fatal combination of higher tax rates and increased regulations. He believes this has sent many people to offshore, illegal operators. The impact has been fewer bonuses and lower payout rates, which offshore casinos are able to provide.

However, this may not be entirely true. Land-based spending on casino games has also fallen, with a 7% decrease in slot machines and casinos. The organisation expects this figure to get worse, as venues close and their revenue loss is factored into the equation.

Changing Regulations in the Dutch Gambling Market

The KSA is always ready to admit its mistakes, and this can be seen in its response to regulations that were meant to channel players to legalised operators. It aimed for a 91% channelisation rate to legal providers, and has admitted that it did not achieve its potential in preventing gambling harms or illegal gambling. Much of this has been blamed on its 29.5% tax rate.

Another gambling bill is set to be introduced by the end of 2025. This has already included a range of possible solutions. One of these is raising the minimum age required to play online slot games.

While he was still State Secretary for Legal Protection, Teun Struycken released a report in March. This highlighted how there had been a lack of preventative measures, the impact of spending limits and giving operators more control to self police. He has clarified that an updated bill will be available by the end of the year.

As well as a minimum age for dangerous games like slots, he has also discussed mandatory financial tests for anyone who wants to increase their deposit limits. Currently, this has a staggered approach with €300 limits for players aged between 18 and 24, and €700 for people over that.

Tougher advertising restrictions will also be introduced. A large amount of gambling advertising had already been banned in the Netherlands since July 2023. However, this will take it one step further and remove targeted online ads. This will also bring in new powers to ban influencer advertising.

Where Does This Leave the Dutch Market?

Before rushing to make changes, the Dutch market really does need to see if this decline has been caused by people going to offshore operators. However, this is hard to quantify as figures on the offshore industry are inconclusive at best. The worry is that declining profits could be caused by something else, such as macroeconomic conditions. This seems to be the case in the retreating profits in physical casinos.

It may also be a social issue. With less advertising, the KSA may actually be doing what they set out to achieve in the first place: Reduce the number of people who are being introduced to gambling at a young age. As these people grow older, they don’t gamble, and this is being seen in revenues. Only 20% of the Dutch market is in the 18 to 23 category, with 35% being 41 and above. It could be that older players are just not being replaced.

The end-of-year report will be crucial. It will map out the future of gambling up to 2029, by which time the industry may have changed once again. There is no doubt revisions will be made.