Europol warns Middle East conflict escalation raises terrorism risk in EU

Europol has told the Spanish news agency EFE that rising tensions in the Middle East are affecting security in the European Union, with heightened risks of terrorism, organized crime, extremism, and cyberattacks.

For the sixth day in a row, United States and Israeli forces have bombarded targets in Iran. In the initial strikes on Saturday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, and the country has since launched reprisals against U.S. military bases and other sites throughout the Middle East.

Europol’s Jan Op Gen Oorth warned that organisations tied to Iran could pursue destabilising actions inside the European Union, including terrorism and intimidation campaigns. He also said European infrastructure could face more cyberattacks, and that sophisticated AI‑enabled online fraud may rise as the conflict’s effects ripple across the region.

The National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) keeps the threat level at 4 (substantial), reflecting a real possibility of terrorist attacks linked to online radicalisation and Iranian operations. Minister of Justice and Security David van Weel said the government is especially vigilant regarding Iranian intelligence and potential cyberattacks on vital infrastructure.

The escalation of attacks between the United States, Israel, and Iran has prompted warnings of potential cyberattacks on vital Dutch infrastructure, from energy grids and banks to healthcare systems, as tensions fuel increased cyber activity targeting critical systems internationally.

Organisations like the “Islamic Cyber Resistance” are urging cyberattacks on Western countries, and the Netherlands, due to its alliance with the U.S., could face threats including DDoS attacks and destructive “wiper” malware.

France, Germany, and other EU nations have increased security precautions due to concerns over potential incidents linked to Middle East tensions. Judicial and security sources stress that the situation is fluid, and threats could emerge at any moment, although there is currently no evidence of imminent attacks.

Europol has rated the threat of terrorism and violent extremism in the EU as “high,” indicating that attacks could occur in the near future. This risk spans from lone radicals to small, autonomous cells choosing to carry out operations.