Dutch police discontinue controversial crime-predicting algorithm CAS

The police stopped using the Criminality Anticipation System (CAS) in December, an algorithm that predicted the risk of criminal activity. The force confirmed this after reports in the Volkskrant. The Netherlands Court of Audit had previously determined years ago that the algorithm did not meet standards.

CAS was piloted from 2015 and rolled out nationwide in 2017, remaining in use until mid-December 2025. "The police concluded that the operational value of CAS is unclear because there were no clear goals or measurable success criteria," the force said. All collected data, the code, and related documentation have been archived for five years and will be destroyed thereafter.

The Netherlands Court of Audit (Algemene Rekenkamer) noted in 2022 that various government algorithms, including CAS, failed to meet basic standards. The police, for instance, relied on historical neighborhood data to predict crime probabilities. "Since some areas were more intensively monitored in the past, the forecasts are likely to contain undesirable systematic biases," the Court of Audit said.

The move to end CAS comes after the police discontinued another controversial algorithm in September 2023: the Risk Assessment Instrument for Violence (RTI-G). This tool aimed to predict individual risks of committing violence but was criticized for being vulnerable to ethnic profiling and for lacking scientific support.

The decision to end CAS was partly shaped by the report “Navigating No Man’s Land” from the Police Scientific Advisory Board, which advised halting predictive algorithms of this kind because of the "high and profound risks" they pose to the public.

Following algorithm-related scandals at agencies like the Tax and Customs Administration and DUO, the Dutch Data Protection Authority (AP) has tightened supervision of police investigative practices to ensure that citizens are not incorrectly classified as "high risk."