EU climate law's 90% emissions cut by 2040 the minimum Netherlands should achieve: PBL

The European Commission recently proposed a climate goal to cut CO2 emissions in the EU by 90 percent by 2040, compared to 1990. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) agrees that the Netherlands should have a climate goal for 2040 instead of only its current interim goal for 2030 and end goal of a climate-neutral society in 2050. “Based on international fairness, a target of 90 percent or more is appropriate,” the PBL said in a new report.

Most countries in the world are aiming to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees, as per the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015. If this is to have a 50-50 chance of success, the world can emit no more than 250 billion tons of CO2 in the years up to 2050. That is six times the current annual emissions worldwide. And that also requires emissions to be significantly reduced by 2030 and for most of the work to be done by 2040, the PBL said.

How these “allowed” emissions will be distributed among the countries has yet to be determined and will likely be the topic of many a climate summit. It depends on which fairness principle the world leaders decide to apply, PBL and Utrecht University researcher Detlef van Vuuren, the lead author of the report, explained to NOS. “For example, if we put historical responsibility first, Dutch emissions should already be around zero in 2040.”

If you draw a straight line between 2030 and 2050, the Netherlands and the EU average should be around 80 percent less emissions in 2040. But that will mean much harder work in the last decade than in the first one because the final emissions will be the most difficult to cut, climate experts agree.

The European Scientific Climate Council, therefore, recommended an emissions reduction of 90 to 95 percent for 2040 compared to 1990. Based on that advice, the European Council proposed a 90 percent target as the EU average. The EU Member States will respond to this proposal soon. The Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament, will debate it on Thursday.

According to the PBL, that is really the minimum the Netherlands should achieve by 2040. A 90 percent reduction in emissions could also be a compromise between global fairness and technical feasibility, Van Vuuren told NOS. “The high population density and a relatively large share of intensive agriculture, which is difficult to make sustainable, are challenging for the Netherlands,” he said.

On the plus side, the Netherlands has “the relatively large and shallow North Sea with a lot of wind, the presence of large empty gas fields for possible underground CO2 storage, and the high level of prosperity, which allows us to invest a relatively large amount in the necessary infrastructure,” Van Vuuren said. A 90 percent cut in emissions by 2040 is possible for the Netherlands if the responsible politicians can convince society to accept the changes. “A newer area of research is social feasibility. People are willing to accept emission reductions provided they experience that this is fair and that others also do it.”