"Unrealistic" that Netherlands will achieve climate goals: Council of State

It is unrealistic that the Netherlands will achieve its climate target of emitting at least 55 percent less CO2 by 2030 compared to 1990, the Council of State warned on Thursday. The Cabinet’s most important advisor referred to calculations by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), which show that the climate target will only be achieved if all factors - including the weather and energy market - work out perfectly.

Moreover, the outgoing Cabinet would have to implement all current policy intentions “completely and on time.” And these must also have the “maximum effect.” According to Council of State Vice President Thom de Graaf, it is much more realistic that the outgoing Cabinet will achieve the lower target, as the PBL also expects. That amounts to a 46 percent reduction in emissions in 2030. But “major bottlenecks” still need to be resolved to achieve that target.

There is a shortage of people, resources, and materials, the Council of State notes. Problems that are not yet sufficiently addressed in practice. International tensions bring uncertainties for the energy market, among other things. The Council of State was unable to take the conflict in Israel and Gaza into account, but this could also have a major effect, according to De Graaf. In addition, the fall of the Cabinet has also led to more uncertainties. “Political choices cannot be fully made now,” said De Graaf.

To adjust the climate policy, the Council of State recommends setting an interim target for 2040. Council member Sylvia Wortmann stressed that 2030 is already very soon. “We are already having the greatest possible difficulty in achieving that goal.” With an interim goal for ten years later, it is possible to focus climate policy on that. The Netherlands must be climate-neutral by 2050.

Last year, the Council of State said that the Cabinet’s climate plans needed to be more concrete. The department now sees more measures, “but even now, the concreteness is often still lacking,” said State Councilor Marijke Vos. She cited the shortage on the electricity grid as an example. “There is too little progress in this regard, while it is crucial for the energy transition to succeed.”

PBL

Of all energy used in the Netherlands, between 32 and 42 percent will come from renewable sources in 2030, the PBL said on Thursday. That means the Netherlands could achieve the recently set EU goal of 42.5 percent renewable energy by 2030, but only if everything goes perfectly.

The outgoing Cabinet had numerous proposals, from stricter standards for the industry to encouraging hydrogen use and from insulating drafty houses to new subsidies for second-hand electric cars. But the extent to which those proposals will be implemented after the elections depends on the next coalition that will govern the country.

According to the PBL, the Netherlands will likely achieve 38 percent renewable energy by 2030. To accomplish the tightened European target of 42.5 percent, everything will have to go well, including the weather. If the energy sector's consumption is also considered, that target is still out of reach.

The demand for electricity is growing faster than wind turbines and solar panels can keep up. For the time being, a lot of natural gas will, therefore, still be needed for generation.