Decisive majority in Dutch parliament for referendum within reach after elections

The parliamentary elections on November 22 appear set to significantly shake up the political landscape, seemingly increasing the likelihood of reintroducing a referendum. Pro-referendum parties are performing well in the polls. Whether they will together hold two-thirds of the seats remains uncertain until the results are in.

In both the Eerste Kamer and the Tweede Kamer (the upper and lower house of the Dutch parliament), a “'normal” majority has already approved the so-called binding corrective referendum, a proposal by the Socialist Party (SP). Since this involves amending the Constitution, a two-thirds majority is required in both Chambers. Whether this majority exists will be determined after the elections, with another vote in both Chambers.

The chance of such a large majority is considerably higher after the elections on November 22. In the Peilingwijzer, a weighted average of polls by I&O Research and Ipsos/EenVandaag, pro-referendum parties like NSC, GroenLinks-PvdA, PVV, BBB, PvdD, SP, Forum for Democracy, and JA21 are slightly above the “magic threshold” of 100 out of 150 seats in the Tweede Kamer. NSC, likely to win a significant number of seats, is providing a major boost.

There is also a chance of success in the Senate. The BBB has been dominant with 16 of 75 seats since earlier this year. In October, the party of Caroline van der Plas voted in favor, but it fell just short of a two-thirds majority (45 for, 22 against), possibly due to the absence of some senators.

Former SP MP and initiator of the bill, Renske Leijten, said she hopes for the referendum's adoption. "It gives voters a tool to call back their elected representatives and administrators when necessary. It would help involve those distanced from politics more in democracy. I'm optimistic about its success after November 22, given the strong support for our proposal."

In the SP's proposal for a binding corrective referendum, Dutch citizens can voice their opinions on laws passed by both Chambers but not yet enacted, excluding taxes, the royal house, the Constitution, and international treaties. Four previous attempts at a binding corrective referendum have failed, the latest in July last year. Three others failed between 1996 and 2017, including during the famous “night of Wiegel” in 1999, where the introduction of a corrective referendum just barely lost the majority vote due to the unexpected vote against it in the Senate by VVD member Hans Weigel.

If the referendum is adopted, parties must still agree on its details, such as the number of signatures needed for a public consultation and the turnout required for a valid result. These specifics will be determined through an implementation law.