Netherlands will only feel impact of SpaceX IPO in long term

SpaceX’s planned initial public offering on Friday afternoon, which is anticipated to raise up to 75 billion U.S. dollars, potentially marking it as the largest IPO in history, is not expected to have any immediate effect on the Dutch stock market. Analysts argue that the Netherlands will only feel any meaningful impact in the longer term through broader shifts in technology investment.

SpaceX, founded by billionaire Elon Musk, operates in spaceflight, satellite services, and artificial intelligence. Albert Menkveld, professor of finance at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, said the IPO will primarily function as a test of global investor sentiment towards risky tech businesses. The professor said companies with high potential also come with high uncertainty, adding that the Dutch semiconductor stocks such as ASML, Besi, and ASMI may only respond indirectly over time.

Ralph Wessels, head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO MeesPierson, similarly said that Dutch equities are unlikely to move in response to the listing in the short term. He emphasized that SpaceX’s core business is space technology, which has limited overlap with Dutch-listed firms, and added that its artificial intelligence activities are not among the most advanced in the sector. However, Wessels argues that upcoming IPOs from AI firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI are more likely to have a more direct influence on Dutch markets.

Joost Schmets from the Vereniging van Effectenbezitters (VEB) also suspects that the main effect on the Netherlands will come later through sentiment and capital allocation shifts.

A weak IPO could eventually reduce investor confidence, leading to less money flowing into advanced technology sectors, including semiconductors and chip manufacturing equipment, Schmets said. He added that he does not expect immediate market volatility on Friday but warned that future swings in SpaceX’s valuation could spill over into related industries.