CDA making a comeback in the polls, now equal with VVD; PVV, GL-PvdA still ahead

The CDA is making a comeback in the polls after losing a massive amount of support during its participation in the last Rutte Cabinet. The party now stands at 23 seats, the same as the VVD, which has been in a downward trend in recent months. The PVV (30 seats) and GroenLinks-PvdA (29 seats) are still the largest parties, with the far-right party losing some support in recent weeks and the left-wing party gaining, according to the latest poll by EenVandaag and Verian among 1,505 Dutch voters.

The VVD’s downward trend is because party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz is losing support among the party’s voters, especially in the last month. In mid-June, 77 percent of VVD voters had confidence in her. Now it’s only 50 percent.

Critical voters said that Yeşilgöz is becoming too populist and that the VVD is turning into a “light” version of the PVV under her leadership. They also think she is losing credibility by “reversing her positions and statements.” And many voters mentioned the “antisemitism” controversy with singer Douwe Bob. Yeşilgöz publicly accused him of being an anti-Semite after he refused to play at a Jewish football match, resulting in Douwe Bob receiving death threats and having to go into hiding with his family. According to EenVandaag, critical VVD voters find Yeşilgöz’s behavior “unworthy of a prime minister.”

At the CDA, the opposite is happening. A significant portion of the CDA’s growth can be attributed to party leader Henri Bontenbal. 38 percent of people who plan to vote for CDA said that it was because of Bontenbal rather than the party’s positions, significantly more than for any other party. On average, 8 percent of voters consider the face of the party more important than the party’s positions.

The majority of CDA voters consider Bontenbal a good candidate to be prime minister, and so do many voters from other parties. A total of 21 percent of all respondents feel this way. “I have respect for Bontenbal: clear, honest, and able to build bridges. Something that’s no problem in the current political climate,” a Volt voter said.

The far-right PVV and left-wing GroenLinks-PvdA also moved closer together in the past month. Geert Wilders’ PVV saw its support drop from 32 to 30 seats, while Frans Timmermans’ GroenLinks-PvdA climbed in the polls from 26 to 29 seats.

The other parties showed no significant shifts. After the four largest parties are D66 with 10 seats, SP with 7, and JA21 with 7. JA21 jumped in the polls last month after former PVV State Secretary Ingrid Coenradie joined its ranks.

Among the smaller parties, the PvdD and FvD each have 4 seats, while DENK, BBB, and Volt each have 2. The NSC is still clinging to its presence in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament, with 1 seat.