Dutch worried about cyberattacks, war close to home; Less about further-away threats

Netherlands residents are acutely aware of threats of war and cyber-attacks and the like within Europe but aren’t too concerned with broader, underlying geopolitical dangers. There is also a great deal of confidence that policymakers will deal with the biggest threats in the coming years, according to a poll by the Clingendael Institute for International Relations in The Hague.

According to Clingendael, Netherlands’ residents' biggest concerns are about international developments that have a direct negative impact on the Netherlands. But at the same time, Netherlands residents are also hopeful that policymakers will protect them against these developments in the coming years.

The respondents said that the threat with the biggest impact would be for a cyberattack to successfully strike vital infrastructure in the Netherlands, such as drinking water, payments and banking systems, or energy. Those who the institute surveyed scored such a cyberattack with an average of 7.50 points out of a maximum of 10.00.

Foreign influence on immigration communities in the Netherlands also was considered a serious threat, ranking second with 7.30 points, followed immediately by the occurrence of a terrorist attack by an Islamic group. That scored 7.29 points.

Corporate espionage supported by foreign states presents the most likely threat, with 85.2 percent believing it will take place. Its impact score placed it as the 30th most serious threat. Nearly 82 percent also are concerned about China and Russia’s growing influence with other countries becoming more geopolitically important, like India, Brazil, South Africa, the Balkan countries, and the Gulf states.

This ranked 26th most impactful, while the prospect of a war near the European Union causing another influx of refugees ranked 18th most impactful. It was viewed as the third most likely to occur, with over 79 percent thinking there is a high probability of this happening.

At the same time, the Netherlands' investment in cyber defenses to protect vital infrastructure was ranked the most impactful development that could have a positive benefit. That was followed by the expansion of NATO to include Sweden and the strengthening of modern and high-tech production in the Netherlands.

About 87.5 percent think NATO will expand to include NATO, and 82.5 percent think the Dutch economy will be strengthened with technological innovations, like artificial intelligence. Roughly 75.7 percent believe the European countries will increase defense spending, making it the positive development those surveyed believe to be the third most likely to take place.

Immigration

The Institute said that, like in previous years, the most disconcerting threats pertain to incidents or negative outcomes in the Netherlands as the result of international development. “Among others, this applies to phenomena such as cyber sabotage, unwanted foreign interference in immigrant communities in the Netherlands, large-scale irregular migration, and international organized crime undermining society,” the Clingendael Institute wrote.

This year, the concerns are more linked to threats related to migration flows and Islamic terrorism. In recent years, the survey responses were more heavily influenced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The 2022 survey had a list of the top five threats which were all connected to the war and potential fallout, including economic and sociopolitical impact, but also cyberattacks and growing tension. A year later, those surveyed still thought dependence on foreign countries for vital resources remained a critical concern.

“Those fears and hopes are still there but now seem less of a priority. They were likely temporarily bumped up the threats and hopes hierarchy by the immediate aftershocks of the Russia and gas price crises, and to a lesser extent Covid-19 and unwanted economic dependence on China.”

“After the threat of cyber sabotage on Dutch vital infrastructure, firmly at number one, irregular migration and various other migration-related developments are high in the threat hierarchy,” the Institute noted in this year’s report. This is likely a response to the Hamas attack in Israel in October, the retaliation in Gaza, and terrorist attacks -or foiled attacks- in Europe afterward.

“Moreover, immigration has been highly politicized in the recent Tweede Kamer elections in the Netherlands, which will also have played a role in the prominence of migration-related items in the threat rankings.”

War

Over a third (35 percent) of the Dutch think it is likely that the Netherlands will be involved in a war within five years. Concerns about the EU’s inadequate military capacity are 8th on the list of Netherlands residents’ top 50 concerns, followed by concerns about involvement in a war through an attack on an EU member state or NATO ally in 9th place. Russia’s victory in Ukraine is also relatively high in the threat hierarchy in 13th place, and 57 percent of the Dutch think it likely that the Russians will win within five years.

Other war-related developments are of less concern to Netherlands residents. The escalation of war in the Middle East ranked in 22nd place, a lack of decisiveness in NATO is 28th, and armed conflict between the U.S. and China is in 31st.

Other geopolitical shifts

Like with the further-away wars, Netherlands residents think non-war threatening geopolitical developments like Russia and China’s increased power and tech giants’ increasing reach are likely. But their concerns about these developments all rank in the mid-to-low range.

According to Clingendeal, the possible influence of these geopolitical shifts on Dutch society receives little to no attention in the political debate, which may explain the lack of attention to their consequences. “Another possible explanation is that people feel relatively shielded from the consequences mentioned in geopolitical developments, despite the fact that they consider these developments likely.”

Climate change

The institute also noted that Dutch society’s perspective on climate change is changing. Four years ago, it was still in the top three threats, and now global warming has dropped to position 40. “The relative decline of climate concerns in the threat hierarchy has been going on steady for several years,” the researchers said. At the same time, Dutch society is very hopeful about adapting to climate change through targeted investments and technological innovations.

”The Dutch thinking about climate change seems to be changing as part of a more general focus on community demarcation and protection: hopes are pinned on high(er) Dutch dikes,” Clingendael said.