Hospitality prices to rise again in 2026 as VAT hike looms

Hospitality prices are set to increase once again next year, with an average rise of around 4 percent. ING research attributes this largely to the proposed VAT hike on accommodation, which would raise the rate from 9 percent to 21 percent starting January 1, 2026.

“Although improved purchasing power will lead to higher consumer spending in the hospitality sector in 2026, it will still not be exuberant,” the bank’s researchers say. This is because consumers “still need time to adjust” to price increases in hotels and restaurants. Last year, prices rose by an average of 6.3 percent, in 2023 by 8.4 percent, and the year before that by 8.6 percent.

The planned VAT hike will make hotels and vacation rentals 11 percent more expensive than in 2025. ING warns that as a result, the hotel industry is facing a year marked by uncertainty.

Rising rents, input costs, and staffing expenses pushed hospitality prices up this year, but these pressures are expected to ease next year. As a result, the outlook is described as moderately positive. “Thanks to a continued improvement in purchasing power, driven by higher wages and lower inflation, consumers are expected to spend more on hospitality both this year and next year than they did last year.”

The economists also point to the growing number of hospitality businesses with problematic debt in their report. “While an average of 7 percent of companies in the Netherlands are dealing with problematic debt, this applies to 20 percent of hospitality businesses, particularly restaurants, snack bars, and (dining) cafés,” ING says. Last year, this figure was still 14 percent, indicating a worsening situation.

According to the economists, today’s financial strain stems in part from debts built up during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as from steeply rising costs. Because many hospitality businesses cannot fully charge these higher expenses to their guests, profit margins are being squeezed, increasing the risk of financial difficulties.