Economic uncertainty to stall job growth in Netherlands, but staff shortages will remain

The benefits agency UWV expects that the number of jobs in the Netherlands will only be slightly higher in 2027 than it was last year. This is mainly due to moderate economic growth and, to a lesser extent, uncertainties from the United States’ import tariffs. Despite this, the number of vacancies will continue to grow, the UWV expects.

The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1.6 percent per year until 2027. According to the UWV, this will no longer translate into substantial job growth. But that does not mean that the tension on the labor market will decrease. “The ageing population means that the working population is barely growing. At the same time, the demand for labor remains high due to the replacement of departing staff,” explained Rob Witjes, the head of labor market information at the UWV.

The stalled job growth won’t impact all sectors equally. Sectors like information and communication, specialist business services, and healthcare and welfare will still see the number of jobs increase. In agriculture, industry, and temporary employment, the number of jobs will decrease. In temporary employment, this is due to the enforcement of rules against fake self-employment, resulting in many freelancers shifting to full-time employment. In other sectors, the number of jobs in 2027 will hardly differ from 2024.

The UWV noted that the American import duties are a major uncertainty. “If these duties are imposed, this will depress job growth, especially in export-oriented sectors such as the metal and chemical industry,” Witjes said. “But even then, we do not expect a decline in the number of jobs, only less growth.”

The benefits agency expects the tightness on the labor market to continue to increase, despite the slowed job growth. Around 1.5 million vacancies will arise per year, mainly due to replacement demand, the UWV said. Sectors like healthcare and welfare, retail, and hospitality will remain the most affected.

“We are past the peak, but employers will continue to suffer from staff shortages in the coming years,” Witjes said. “The continuing tightness requires creative solutions in reducing the mismatch, and good public-private cooperation in the region, for example, in the regional Employment Center.”