Greater risk of boreal forest fires due to global warming, Dutch study shows

The risk of forest fires in Canada, Alaska and Siberia will increase in the coming decades due to climate change, researchers from Wageningen University warned this week. Temperatures are also rising in the areas around the boreal forests in those regions.

This warming is also having an impact on forest density, apart from the more immediate influence caused by the higher temperatures. That is precisely a determining factor for the extent to which fire can spread over the vast areas.

Very dense forests and very open forests have a lower risk of major fires than “semi-open” forests, which are becoming more common. The researchers developed computer models which determined that this type of semi-open forest will develop in more and more places.

They have developed these models with satellite observations from the past 20 years. Based on this, the researchers stated that the vegetation in the coldest, most northern areas will increase. The tree density on the somewhat warmer southern side of the boreal area will decrease. “This means that boreal forests all over the world will start to look very similar,” the researchers remarked.

In an article about their research, the scientists explained why relatively open forests are at greater risk of fires. “Forests with few trees usually do not have enough fuel for it, and dense forests have microclimates in which fires are not so easily started,” they said. “The semi-open variant that we expect is sensitive to this.”

During forest fires, a great deal of carbon is released from the trees and the soil. This is released into the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, which will then contribute to continuing the warming further.

The research was released as wildfires in and around Los Angeles this week threatened to become one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history. Five people have died in the fires so far.

A wildfire broke out Tuesday morning in the Pacific Palisades north of Santa Monica and has already scorched about 70 square kilometers, fanned by strong winds. In the Los Angeles metropolis, around 2,000 buildings have been destroyed or damaged as of Thursday morning. A wildfire also broke out on the outskirts of Hollywood on Wednesday.

The largest fire on the northwest edge of Los Angeles raged on Thursday morning between Santa Monica and Malibu, where homes costs an average of 2 million dollars, according to AccuWeather. This has caused at least 52 billion dollars in damage, equivalent to roughly 50 billion euros.

The area’s real estate is among the most expensive in the United States. It is dotted with mansions and villas owned by celebrities in media and entertainment, with Hollywood to the east of the area.