Excess mortality falls slower than expected in the Netherlands: report

Excess mortality in the Netherlands is not falling as quickly as assumed, according to a new forecast by the Royal Association of Actuaries (AG). “Excess mortality is falling by a quarter each year, not by half,” the association concluded in a report. Excess mortality is defined as an exceptional increase in deaths that overlaps with a particular event, such as an epidemic.

The AG predicted a halving of excess mortality in 2022, “but the figures for 2022 and 2023 show that more people are still dying than expected and that this number is falling more slowly.” The study is based on mortality data up to 2023.

According to the Royal Association of Actuaries forecast, there will primarily be an increase in the probability of death for people over the age of 55. The increase is greater for women than for men. However, the impact of excess mortality is minimal: for newborn boys and girls in 2025, life expectancy will fall by 0.1 years. Accordingly, men will live to an average age of 90.2 years and women 92.9 years.

The association stated that there has been an increase in mortality rates in the Netherlands since 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. “According to the Committee for Mortality Surveys (CSO), there is still no reason to believe that the excess mortality is permanent, but the rate of decline in excess mortality has been revised downwards,” the organization said.

NSC MP Agnes Joseph previously submitted a motion to further investigate the causes of excess mortality to learn from this for future policy.