Dutch Cabinet formation negotiations collapse; Pieter Omtzigt's NSC withdraws from talks

Cabinet formation talks in the Netherlands seemed to have collapsed on Tuesday evening, as NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt has withdrawn from the negotiations, reported AD and NOS. Omtzigt indicated that the current round of talks has largely ended, and that talks between the PVV, NSC, BBB and VVD have failed. Sources told the two media outlets that the talks ended in a "crucial" and "difficult" phase where they were unable to bridge their differences.

The NSC leader ruled out the possibility of his party forming a majority government with the other three parties. Omtzigt cited the "state of public finances" as the reason for his decision, saying that he could not support a government that would make "empty promises" to the Dutch people. Omtzigt has indicated that his party would also only be willing to support a minority Cabinet with the PVV, NSC and BBB on certain issues, but it would not join them in a Cabinet. He would also be willing to back a different type of government that can command broad support in Parliament.

The situation was "incredibly disappointing," wrote PVV leader Geert Wilders on social media platform X. "The Netherlands wants this Cabinet, and now Pieter Omtzigt is throwing in the towel while we were still having discussions until today. I don't understand it at all."

"I'm very surprised. We were in the middle of constructive conversations, even today," wrote VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz - Zegerius. "I hope we can sit down soon to find out exactly what is going on here."

"It is a total surprise to us that Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) has decided to leave the table, and stop talking," wrote BBB leader Caroline van der Plas. "Even though we spoke constructively in a good atmosphere until today. This is astonishing."

Ronald Plasterk found out about the development in a message sent via WhatsApp. The former politician leading the current round of Cabinet formation talks told ANP he was "a bit surprised" about the "confusing story" he heard.

Financial state of affairs may not be the only reason Omtzigt backed away

Omtzigt wrote to his party members to tell them he reviewed "about 20" letters from various government offices, some with partially classified information. He said that the information showed that the Dutch government was facing a much more difficult financial situation than had previously been thought.

"NSC is very shocked after reading the letters today. NSC notes that, as of today, we have different financial expectations for the coming years," he wrote. "Under no circumstances does NSC want to make promises to Dutch people, which it knows in advance are empty promises that cannot be kept during the coming Cabinet period. You cannot build social security with castles in the sky.”

However, AD noted that the letters about the financial state of affairs were sent to the PVV, NSC, BBB and VVD in the last week of January. "For now, the NSC's work has been completed in this round and Nieuw Sociaal Contract will await the report from informateur Plasterk,” Omtzigt wrote.

It may never be fully disclosed if the NSC had more reasons for pulling out of talks. The four parties have been negotiating in a strained atmosphere for the last few weeks, marked by personal sniping from Wilders on social media, and general distrust. When Wilders returned to social media on Monday calling for the four parties to resolve their differences, Yesilgöz and BBB leader Caroline van der Plas quickly agreed, but Omtzigt remained silent.

Negotiating parties remained opposed to each other over the handling of many issues

The parties were far apart on many critical issues, like asylum, immigration, budget cuts, and the abolition of the health insurance deductible. The collapse of the formation talks is a major setback for the Dutch political establishment. It is unclear how the country will now proceed with the formation of a new government.

The four parties had been in talks for about two months, not including a break for the winter holiday, but the negotiations had become increasingly strained in recent days. From the start, the VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz said that her party would not join the next Cabinet because of their recent election loss in November. The support from the VVD and NSC would be crucial to achieve a majority in the Tweede Kamer and the Eerste Kamer, the lower and upper houses of Dutch Parliament.

The situation diminishes the prospect of a Cabinet led by Geert Wilders, whose party was dominant in the recent election. Though it is the largest party in the Tweede Kamer, it is unlikely he could form a majority Cabinet without either the NSC or VVD. Additionally, years of controversial rhetoric by the political leader has made the PVV a faction that has pushed other parties to a point where they are unwilling to work together.

It also raises questions about the VVD, where cooperation with the PVV was a divisive issue. The VVD lost many voters because of key issues like the handling of the immigration and asylum crisis, prompting party members to cast their ballots elsewhere, often for politicians with more nationalistic stances on those issues.

Forming a Cabinet with support in both houses was always going to be difficult

In any case, a Cabinet with majority support in the Tweede Kamer would need support from other parties in the Eerste Kamer. Likewise, a Cabinet that only had majority support in the Eerste Kamer would likely need the backing from others in the lower house to pass legislation.

The PVV has 37 seats in the Tweede Kamer, while the VVD has 24, NSC has 20, and the BBB has 7, for a combined total of 88. The Tweede Kamer has 150 seats in total, meaning 76 is needed for a majority.

The BBB is the biggest party in the Eerste Kamer, with 16 senators. The VVD has 10, and the PVV has 4, for a combined total of 30. That is eight senators shy of a majority in the upper house, where there are 75 seats in total. Omtzigt had not yet formed the NSC when the provincial elections were held, which determined the composition of the current Eerste Kamer.