With the election over, the Cabinet formation process starts: What to expect

Now that the parliamentary elections are over, the formation process for the Netherlands’ next government can begin. And with the massive election win of Geert Wilders and his far-right PVV shaking the political landscape in the Netherlands to its core, the formation process will likely be another long one. Here’s what to expect, according to AD.

Today, the vote count continues. It is a day for the political parties to celebrate their victories or wallow in their defeats, and catch their breath.

Tomorrow, Tweede Kamer president Vera Bergkamp will receive the leaders of the parties that received a seat in parliament. During this gathering, a scout will be selected to see how the parties view each other and the formation of the next government. As the big winner, PVV leader Geert Wilders will present a candidate. The presented candidate typically gets broad support.

The vote count should be completed by Monday, November 27, and the Electoral Council will announce the official results at 10:00 a.m. on Friday, December 1. In the meantime, the Tweede Kamer’s credentials committee will investigate the conduct of the election and determine whether a recount or re-vote is necessary.

On Tuesday, December 5, the old Tweede Kamer will take its leave. Parliamentarians who won’t return to the new Tweede Kamer will get an official farewell and address by Kamer President Bergkamp. Bergkamp herself will also not return.

The next day, Wednesday, December 6, the new Tweede Kamer will be installed. The new parliamentarians will take their oath, the procedure to elect a new Tweede Kamer president starts, and the parties will take their places on the benches.

On Thursday, December 7, the new parliament will likely have its first debate, and the topic will be the election results. They’ll also discuss the scout’s report on what the parties think about the formation. Typically, the “formation informant” is also appointed at the end of this debate.

The formation informant is usually a former politician. Their job is to investigate whether and how a new Cabinet can be formed. From December 8 onward, the “black box” starts. The party leaders visit the informant, who crosses out impossible coalitions and further investigates promising ones.

As the leader of the largest party, Geert Wilders is a prominent candidate for Prime Minister. However, many parties are hesitant to work with his PVV. Though much less hesitant than before. The VVD is no longer an outright no, for example. And while Pieter Omtzigt of the NSC previously said that he wouldn’t work with the PVV as long as the party program states that Islam should be banned from the Netherlands, he refused to repeat that rejection after the polling stations closed on Wednesday, according to RTL.

Together, the three right-wing parties hold 81 of the 150 seats in parliament, according to the latest forecast. And that coalition can count on support from 56 percent of voters, according to a Hart van Nederland poll.

It is possible that the PVV will not be able to find enough common ground with the other parties to form a majority coalition. In that case, the winning party may be excluded from the coalition - a center coalition of GroenLinks-PvdA, VVD, NSC, and D66 would have a majority with 78 seats in parliament, but this coalition can only count on support from 25 percent of voters.

Other options are a minority Cabinet, which would need support from opposition parties to push plans through parliament, or a “business Cabinet” led by someone who was never on the ballot.

There’s no deadline for this process. The previous formation took about 11 months. So it is unclear when Mark Rutte will be relieved of his duties and whether that will happen in time for him to take on his potential new job as head of NATO.