Political newcomer NSC and VVD biggest parties in latest poll ahead of Dutch elections

According to a new EenVandaag and Ipsos poll, Omtzigt’s Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC) and the VVD are projected to be the two largest parties in the upcoming election for the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament. Despite losing momentum, the PvdA/GroenLinks leftwing combination remains in the third position, while the farmers' party BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) witnesses a decrease in support. The election will take place on November 22.

Conducted from September 2 to September 4, this is the first EenVandaag/Ipsos poll conducted since Pieter Omtzigt declared his participation in the November 22 parliamentary election with his new party. The survey also took place after the BBB announced Mona Keijzer as their prime minister candidate. The previous poll was conducted on July 25.

The previous poll showcased a tight three-way race between the VVD, PvdA/GL, and BBB. However, this new poll indicates a close race primarily between the NSC and VVD, holding 27 and 26 seats, respectively. The VVD received the most votes in the 2021 parliamentary elections and secured 34 seats.

For the newcomer NSC, most of the voters come from PvdA/GL, BBB, SP, PVV and VVD.

The left-wing alliance, which previously saw a surge following the announcement of Frans Timmermans as the lead candidate for the PvdA-GL bloc, is currently projected to secure 20 seats, a drop of seven seats since the previous poll. According to EenVandaag/Ipsos, the earlier rise in popularity, dubbed "the Timmermans effect," seems to be waning. However, this prediction still puts them ahead of their 2021 election result when both parties ran separately. PvdA reached nine seats, while GroenLink secured eight.

BBB, having enjoyed a crushing victory in the March 2023 provincial election, appears to be losing support, now standing neck-and-neck with the far-right PVV party, each holding 15 seats. Despite this decline, BBB would see substantial gains compared to the last election for the Tweede Kamer, when the party secured one single seat.

The CDA seems to witness minor changes in popularity with the introduction of Henri Bontenbal as the new party leader, currently projected to secure five seats, a significant decrease from the 15 seats they got in the last parliamentary elections.

D66, the big winner of the previous parliamentary election together with the VVD, now stands at ten seats, unchanged from the July poll but considerably less than the 24 seats they got in the 2021 elections with Sigrid Kaag as leader. Rob Jetten was recently elected the new party leader by the members, but this does not seem to have an impact on voting preferences.

The Christian Union remains steady, holding five seats, and appears to be the only party from the outgoing Cabinet to maintain the same number of seats since entering the coalition in 2021.

In this new poll, the Socialist Party (SP), led by Lilian Marijnissen like in 2021, seems to be facing significant losses, potentially holding only three seats. This is a steep decline from their previous result, which had them level with PvdA and just ahead of GroenLinks with nine seats.

Volt, Forum for Democracy, JA21, SGP and DENK all get three seats, according to this poll.