Mark Rutte in a parliamentary debate on notes leaked from the cabinet formation process, 1 April 2021

Wednesday, 26 October 2022 - 08:12

PM Rutte's VVD steadily losing support in polls; Far-right PVV gaining

Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s VVD is steadily losing support in the polls. In the latest Peilingwijzer, the VVD has between 22 and 26 seats, about seven less than six months ago when the party stood at 29 to 33. Rutte’s party currently has 34 seats in parliament, NOS reports.

The VVD is still the largest party in the polls but is now much closer to number two - Geert Wilders’ PVV. The far-right party now has 18 to 22 seats in the polls, compared to 13 to 17 six months ago. The PVV has 17 seats in parliament.

According to political scientists Tom Louwerse, who created the Peilingwijzer from a calculated average of the polls by I&O Research, Ipsos/EenVandaag, and Kantar, the VVD was also so low in poll seats when it ruled with the PvdA between 2012 and 2017. But he thinks Rutte’s party has a “structurally more difficult” time now than two Cabinets ago.

“Rutte has ruled for 12 years. The party is jointly responsible for policy. And, therefore, also for many things that did not go well in recent years, such as the problems with gas extraction in Groningen and the benefits scandal. It is becoming more difficult to explain why the VVD must continue to rule,” Louwerse said to NOS.

The VVD is also struggling from a lack of confidence in the Cabinet, which dropped to a new low before Budget Day and has since decreased further. According to research by Ipsos, over 75 percent of Netherlands residents have little to no confidence in the Rutte IV Cabinet.

Voters abandoning the VVD say the party is too soft on asylum seekers and its course is not right enough. According to I&O Research, Rutte’s party is losing seats to right-wing parties JA21 and BBB. The PVV is gaining seats from former FvD voters and is also doing well among people who did not vote last year.

Farmers party BBB, which has one seat in parliament, is currently at 12 to 16 seats in the polls, down from 14 to 19 in the summer. According to Louwerse, the decline stems from the Johan Remkes report somewhat taking the sting out of the nitrogen conflict between the government and farmers.

Animal party PvdD (six seats in parliament) is gaining ground, now standing at 8 to 11 seats. According to Louwerse, the party benefits from the lack of a clear leader on the left. The party is mainly gaining seats from D66, Volt, the PvdA, and GroenLinks.

PvdA (9 seats in parliament) and GroenLinks (8 seats in parliament) are also gaining in the polls and are still almost the same size. The PvdA has 10 to 13 seats in the polls, and GroenLinks has 9 to 13. Their profit is at the expense of the D66.

The second largest party in the Rutte IV Cabinet now stands at 12 to 16 seats in the polls. Six months ago, the D66 stood at 17 to 21 seats. The D66 has 24 seats in parliament. The CDA stands at 6 to 10 seats, about the same as six months ago. ChristenUnie is the most stable coalition party, standing at 4 to 6 seats and maintaining the number of seats it won in last year’s election.

The smaller parties are in about the same position they were in six months ago. JA21 has 7 to 11 seats, SP has 7 to 9, FvD 3 to 5 - half the election results, Volt and SGP have 3 to 5, DENK has 2 to 4, and BIJ1 and 50 Plus have 0 to 2.