Dutch spending on restaurants, hotels, and travel expected to fall in 2026 as costs rise
The Dutch leisure sector is headed for weaker demand in 2026 as costs rise sharply and consumers become more cautious, ABN ARMO reports. The leisure industry is expected to see volumes fall by 1 percent in 2026, followed by a modest 2 percent recovery in 2027. The bank reports that the drop in demand is driven by geopolitical tensions, a higher value-added tax on overnight stays, and increasing labor expenses.
Geopolitical uncertainty, including the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, and increased trade tariffs from the United States, is weighing on consumer confidence and spending behavior. Hotels and holiday parks are additionally affected by a VAT increase introduced earlier this year, which has reduced demand for overnight stays.
Through March, the number of overnight stays at hotels, campsites, and holiday parks fell 2.2 percent compared with a year earlier. A study by Mews, covering roughly 600 Dutch hotels, found that on average, half of the VAT increase is absorbed by hotel operators, while the other half is passed on to guests. Booking data from LeisurePeaks shows German tourists, for example, are increasingly choosing campsites over holiday parks.
Labor costs are adding further pressure in this highly labor-intensive sector. Restaurants allocate about 35 percent of revenue to wages, while lodging providers spend about 26 percent. Both are well above the economy-wide average of 16 percent. The hospitality collective labor agreement is set to expire at the end of this year. According to ABN AMRO’s Economic Bureau, the deal will need to be renegotiated amid rising inflation expectations of 3.1 percent this year.
The statutory minimum wage will increase in July 2026, lifting much of the wage structure upward. Depending on the hours, minimum wage workers can expect a net rise of between 23 and 31 euros per month, payroll company Youforce reported in May. A further rise in the minimum youth wage is scheduled for Jan. 1, 2027, affecting workers up to age 20. Combined, these increases are expected to further compress margins across the sector.
Consumer behavior is also shifting toward restraint. Data from the CBS show volumes at restaurants and cafés fell more than 1 percent in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, while domestic overnight stays declined more than 3 percent.
Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic. Tough, strong job security and high household savings are partially cushioning the impact, the bank adds. Because leisure spending is largely discretionary, consumers are increasingly opting for cheaper alternatives, fewer restaurant visits, or shorter and less expensive trips.
The Netherlands Board of Tourism and Conventions (NBTC) estimates that growth in foreign tourism will halve in 2026 due in part to the VAT increase. Combined with a slight decline in domestic visitors, total guest growth is expected to slow to just 0.5 percent, the lowest increase since 2012.
Rising energy and transportation costs are also affecting the travel industry. Airlines and travel organizations report higher fuel costs, with Air France-KLM increasing ticket prices across several subsidiaries due to elevated kerosene prices.
Data from the Association of Dutch Travel Agencies shows a shift in booking patterns, with intercontinental trips declining while European travel increases. In April, 11 percent of travelers booked destinations outside Europe, down from 17 percent a year earlier.
Energy costs are particularly burdensome for lodging providers, accounting for about 28 percent of operating profit. Facilities with energy-intensive amenities such as pools and saunas are especially exposed.
Continued high energy prices are also set to push up food costs later in the year. That is expected to push restaurants and hotels to raise prices further to protect margins.
