Employee Insurance Agency: High energy prices could cut 75,000 jobs by 2028
A prolonged period of high energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could significantly slow job growth in the Netherlands, the Dutch Employee Insurance Agency (UWV) stated Tuesday, with as many as 75,000 fewer jobs expected over three years compared with a scenario in which prices fall quickly.
The UWV analyzed the labor market through 2028 under two scenarios: one in which energy prices decline rapidly and another in which elevated prices persist. Even in the less favorable case, employment would continue to grow, but at a substantially weaker pace than in recent years.
Rob Witjes, head of labor market information and advisory at the UWV, said companies are becoming more cautious due to global instability. “Much depends on the uncertainty in the world; businesses are becoming more cautious,” he said.
The agency linked recent energy price increases to geopolitical escalation following attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran in February, which contributed to a sharp global rise in energy costs.
The impact of sustained high energy prices would not be evenly distributed across sectors. The UWV expects the strongest effects in industry, transport, and storage, where job growth would slow as energy costs rise. The temporary employment sector would also be affected, as many agency workers are employed in those same industries.
Higher energy prices also feed through into inflation and reduced purchasing power, which in turn would weigh on employment in consumer-sensitive sectors such as hospitality.
Not all sectors would contract under the high-price scenario. The UWV expects continued growth in specialized business services, including accountants and legal service providers. Witjes said this trend is already visible. “More people could move toward these sectors because other sectors are growing less strongly,” he said.
Vacancies are also expected to keep rising in healthcare and information and communications technology, which are less exposed to energy price fluctuations and are supported by long-term structural demand, particularly in healthcare.
Regional differences are expected to be significant. Job growth would remain strongest around Amsterdam and Eindhoven. In contrast, in Midden-Limburg, Zeeland, and Drenthe, modest employment growth would turn into slight contraction if high energy prices persist.
If energy prices fall quickly, however, the UWV expects job growth to recover more strongly through 2028. “It is all temporary,” Witjes said. “We assume that by 2028 everything will bounce back, provided the war is over by then.”
The UWV is urging companies, workers, and job seekers to continue investing in skills and development. “The tightness in the labor market will not disappear on its own, so keep developing yourself,” Witjes said.
