Survey: Dutch World Cup hopes surge, but only 8% expect title win
Support for Oranje has increased markedly in the run-up to the 2026 World Cup, with 63 percent of fans now expressing confidence in the squad. A large survey by the RTL Nieuwspaneel, involving over 18,000 supporters, suggests that public mood around the team led by Ronald Koeman has improved considerably compared with previous years.
Confidence in the Netherlands national football team has risen sharply, with 63% of respondents now expressing trust in the squad. That represents a major increase compared with the run-up to the European Championship two years ago, when only 44% felt confident.
As many as 92% of World Cup fans expect the Netherlands to comfortably make it through the group stage. Expectations are high but remain realistic: only 8% of fans believe the Netherlands will actually become world champions.
Supporters identify two standout players as central figures for Oranje at the tournament. Frenkie de Jong is viewed by 31% of respondents as the team’s most important player, valued for his technical ability and vision in midfield. Virgil van Dijk is highlighted for his composure, experience, and leadership, particularly in mentoring younger teammates.
Other players frequently mentioned as key contributors include Cody Gakpo, Denzel Dumfries, and Donyell Malen, all of whom are expected to play important roles in the squad’s performance.
Confidence in Oranje is not limited to fans alone, as statistical models and analysts also see the team as a serious contender. According to simulations from the OPTA supercomputer, reported by ESPN, the Netherlands ranks among the most dangerous outsiders for the World Cup, with a 3.92% chance of lifting the trophy, placing it 8th overall.
The model projects that the Netherlands would progress as group winners, followed by knockout victories over Morocco and Canada, before ultimately being eliminated by France in the quarterfinals.
German economist Joachim Klement, who accurately predicted the winners of the past three World Cups, has concluded in his latest econometric model that the Netherlands will win the World Cup.
Dumfries has urged optimism around Oranje ahead of the tournament, saying the squad has both the belief and quality to compete at the highest level.
“I always go into competitions to win,” he said to Vandaag Inside. “We have a group that is capable of doing that, but everything needs to fall into place. The details matter, and we all need the right mindset and approach. If we do that, we can be contenders. Of course, you still have to prove it on the pitch, but I think we have an excellent squad.”
With the tournament in the United States, Canada and Mexico about to get underway, Ronald Koeman has confirmed in a press conference that Bart Verbruggen will be the Netherlands’ first-choice goalkeeper at the World Cup.
Oranje will play two final friendly matches on home soil ahead of the tournament, facing Algeria on June 3 and Uzbekistan on June 8.
Their World Cup campaign then begins on Sunday, June 14 at 10 p.m. Dutch time against Japan. The remaining group matches are scheduled against Sweden on June 20 and Tunisia on June 26.
