Dutch spy agencies were split on whether Putin would invade Ukraine in 2022
The two Dutch top spy agencies clashed on whether Putin would invade Ukraine. The Netherlands’ Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin would, while the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) believed he would not, NU.nl reports. The disagreement between the Netherlands’ two main intelligence services shaped the country’s official position before Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.
Russia experts from the MIVD and AIVD were combined into one shared Russia unit, where tensions persisted. MIVD staff were often described as acting first and thinking later, and AIVD staff were seen as thinking first and acting later.
Most experts at the Dutch Foreign Ministry aligned with the MIVD, believing Putin would invade. Geoffrey van Leeuwen, a close adviser to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, led that group.
The AIVD formally reports to the Ministry of the Interior but, in practice, serves the entire cabinet, especially the Foreign Ministry.
Rob Bauer, then chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, rejected the AIVD’s conclusion that Putin would not invade. The AIVD stood by its assessment, citing a “unique source” close to Putin that neither the CIA nor MI6 could claim to have.
U.S. and British efforts to convince allies of Putin’s plans failed to sway the AIVD. The official Dutch government position followed the AIVD line: “No, Putin is not going to do it.”
Overall, Western intelligence services broadly disagreed on the risk of an invasion. Defense expert Ko Colijn told NU.nl. The United States has about 15 intelligence agencies that often reach different conclusions.
The turning point in the U.S. and British prediction came when U.S. intelligence, based in part on satellite imagery, observed Russia massing unusually large amounts of blood plasma and field hospitals near the Ukrainian border. This differed from normal military exercises, leading the agencies to believe Russia is getting ready for a real invasion.
