Dutch climate agency urges limits on acceptable deaths, damage from global warming
On Monday, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) said the country is not sufficiently prepared for the effects of global warming and called on government and society to make “fundamental choices” about adaptation, including whether to prioritize protecting vulnerable residents, nature, or economic sectors such as agriculture.
PBL said rising temperatures are expected to lead to more hospital admissions and more deaths. It urged policymakers to determine how many additional deaths and medical cases should be considered acceptable. The same applies to damage from extreme rainfall, which is expected to increase, though the level of acceptable damage has not yet been defined. The agency added that full protection from climate risks is impossible. “The idea behind these kinds of fundamental choices is that the effectiveness of climate policy can only be determined when it is clear what the policy aims to achieve,” the agency said.
PBL Director Marko Hekkert stressed the urgency of adaptation. “Adaptation to climate change is inevitable,” Hekkert told NOS. “The question is whether we now make the choices to keep our country livable, fair, and resilient in a warmer, drier, and wetter climate.”
The agency said its findings align with earlier government advisory reports, which have repeatedly urged stronger political direction on issues such as acceptable levels of salinization and stricter requirements for housing construction in a changing climate. It also noted recent advice that the government should take stronger control in preparing for extreme rainfall, which is currently coordinated too loosely, to ensure that vulnerable communities, particularly those in lower-income urban areas, receive the necessary support and resources to adapt to these climate challenges.
The report highlights inequality as a central policy issue. Climate impacts are uneven across the country: cities tend to experience higher temperatures, some regions are more vulnerable to flooding, and lower-income urban households often lack the means to take protective measures on their own. During dry periods, the same inequality in water distribution appears, with the agency saying more frequent decisions will be needed about who receives priority access to water.
To support decision-making, PBL mapped Dutch climate risks through 2050, including wildfire risk, water availability, and risks to housing under changing climate conditions. It assessed risks based on cost, number of people affected, frequency, and whether the damage would be irreversible.
Under the current policy continuation, no major new choices will be made, and the climate risks will remain high, PBL said. A second option, “intensification,” would rely on technical measures such as air conditioning and shading to reduce heat stress and water waste in agriculture. These measures could provide short-term relief, but their long-term adequacy remains unclear.
A third option, “transformation,” would involve structural spatial changes, including adding more green space and water in urban areas. PBL said this approach could deliver substantial improvements, particularly in reducing drought impacts, but would require significant time, money, and long-term government planning. The agency stated that the most effective policy will likely combine these approaches. It urges policymakers to embed climate adaptation across all areas of government policy. PBL also called for stronger societal resilience through public information campaigns, early warning systems, and disaster preparedness plans.
