High home prices pressuring Dutch birth rate: study
The rising home prices have made finding a suitable family home increasingly difficult for young adults. This is one of the reasons the birth rate in the Netherlands is declining, NOS reports, citing research by the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI).
Home prices in the Netherlands have been rising much more sharply than incomes since 2013, mostly due to the massive housing shortage in the country. As a result, young adults are more often living in homes considered less suitable for raising children, such as apartments or still with their parents.
NIDI speaks of a “mismatch” between the type of home young adults want to start a family and the homes available to them on the housing market. As a result, they postpone having children or even decide not to start a family at all.
“There are many family homes, but they are not always accessible to the group who wants to start a family,” NIDI researcher Daniel van Wijk said. “High home prices are a hindering factor to starting a family. How you live, therefore, largely determines your life path.”
According to Van Wijk, there are various reasons behind the declining birth rate, but the high home prices are a major one. In 2010, the average number of children was 1.8 per woman. In 2024, that had dropped to 1.43. The behavior change became visible from the moment home prices started skyrocketing in 2013, Van Wijk said.
Corroborating evidence for this is that women in owner-occupied homes are more likely to have children than tenants. And women in detached homes have children 38 percent more often than women in apartments.
“Households are not adjusting their requirements for a home despite the housing crisis. They consider it important to start a family in a child-friendly home and are not compromising on that,” Van Wijk said. He expects that the birth rate will rise again when the housing shortage eases.
