Iran war's high energy prices to soon cause rising costs for all consumers: Rabobank
If the war in the Middle East continues, the high fuel prices consumers are currently experiencing at the pump will domino-effect through all consumer prices. Clothing, tools, food, vacations - everything will become more expensive in the long run, according to Rabobank economists. Prices will likely peak around 21 months from now.
The first effects - the high fuel prices - are already noticeable. The rest will take more time, RaboResearch economist Hugo Erken said.
Next up will be energy-intensive products, like plane tickets and outings, Erken said. “Take a hotel stay, for instance. The lights have to be on, the heating has to be on, and food has to be cooked in the restaurant. That will all become more expensive. And at the end of the day, staff also have to be paid more,” Erken told NOS.
“After three months, you’ll see the first effects on industrial products like steel. The price rises gradually, because first transport becomes more expensive, then items containing steel like washing machines and game consoles, and finally wages rise.”
The price hikes will reach services like hairdressers, beauticians, and car mechanics last. They’ll push up their prices when they have to start paying their staff more.
“Trade unions will likely put an additional wage demand on the table during collective bargaining negotiations in the near future,” Erkens said. They do this to compensate employees’ income for the higher inflation that the energy prices will likely cause. “Those higher wages have to be paid by the employer, and that ends up on the consumer’s plate in the form of products becoming more expensive.”
The RaboResearch economists based their calculations on recent oil and gas prices. But the calculations contain a great deal of uncertainty, because it is not clear how long this war will last and how high energy prices will rise. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday urged governments, businesses, and consumers worldwide to lower their fuel and energy consumption.
The researchers expect the energy shock that we are now beginning to feel will last for some time. We saw the same during the energy crisis in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Erkens said. Though he added that the gas price in the 2022 crisis was considerably higher than it is now.
A separate RaboResearch study warned that the war in the Middle East will affect the economies of all Dutch regions to some extent. Energy-intensive regions like Delfzijl and the surrounding area and Zeeuwsch-Vlaanderen will be hit hardest. But higher inflation and uncertainty will also impact all other regions, economists Florine Zendijk and Otto Raspe said.
The Dutch economy as a whole grew by 1.9 percent in 2025. For 2026, the researchers expect 1.4 percent growth. “This forecast is surrounded by significant uncertainty due to the unpredictable course of the war in the Middle East.”
The economies in the Greater Amsterdam and Eindhoven regions will grow the most this year. The Amsterdam region’s forecast growth of 3.0 percent is largely due to favorable expectations for the IT sector, and many businesses in the sector are located in this region. The Zuidoost-Noord-Brabant region, the region around Eindhoven, can thank the high-tech manufacturing industry for its forecast 2.9 percent growth. This is partly driven by chip machine maker ASML experiencing a record year in 2025.
