Dutch PM’s centrist D66 party bleeding support with move towards right wing policies

If the Tweede Kamer elections were held today, GroenLinks-PvdA and D66 would emerge as the largest parties, according to the latest Ipsos I&O seat poll. GroenLinks-PvdA would win 25 seats, up five from February, while D66 would drop to 24 seats from 25.

The Ipsos I&O poll, conducted from March 6 to 9, indicates that GroenLinks-PvdA’s gains come largely at the expense of D66. About 12 percent of D66 voters from 2025 now consider switching to GroenLinks-PvdA, citing disappointment with the “right-leaning policies” of the current coalition. These voters said D66 has aligned too closely with the VVD and no longer represents a “left-wing voice.”

The PVV continues to lose ground, dropping seven seats since October 2025 to 19. Among former PVV voters, 57 percent would vote for the PVV again, while 14 percent favor Forum for Democracy and 12 percent support JA21. The growth of JA21 and Forum for Democracy continues, with the parties projected to win 14 and 10 seats, respectively. The BBB remains at one seat, its lowest in Ipsos polling since March 2021.

Coalition parties collectively lose six seats compared to the last election, dropping from 66 to 60. D66 would hold 24 seats (minus two), VVD 21 (minus one), and CDA 15 (minus three). Only the CDA faces a significant decline. Overall, 54 percent of voters believe the current cabinet will not complete its term. D66 and CDA supporters are slightly less pessimistic, while FvD, JA21, and PVV voters remain largely doubtful.

Support for a minority cabinet remains low. Only 15 percent agree that a minority government is positive, while 43 percent oppose it, 28 percent are neutral, and 14 percent are unsure. Four in ten voters view a minority government as equally democratic to a majority government, while 18 percent consider it more democratic and 19 percent less.

Resistance to raising the AOW retirement age has grown. After heated debates, 66 percent of Dutch respondents oppose the plan to raise the AOW age in line with life expectancy, up from 53 percent in January. Only 19 percent support the measure. D66 voters are the most supportive, with 42 percent in favor, down from 52 percent in January.

Most voters consider the proposed increase unfair to those in physically demanding jobs (82 percent) and younger generations (48 percent). Opposition is particularly strong among people aged 25 to 49, with 61–62 percent concerned they will have to work longer. GroenLinks-PvdA supporters express the strongest opposition for heavy laborers, at 92 percent. Supporters of right-leaning parties, including FvD, PVV, and JA21, are largely against the increase for younger people.

The Ipsos I&O survey included 2,132 Dutch adults, with a representative sample based on gender, age, region, education level, and voting behavior in the October 2025 Tweede Kamer elections. The survey was conducted independently without a client.