Purchasing power increase in Netherlands to rise less than expected in 2026
Dutch households will have less extra money to spend in 2026 than previously forecast, with average purchasing power now expected to rise by 0.9 percent instead of 1.3 percent, according to updated calculations from the Nibud. The downgrade reportedly reflects slower wage growth, even as inflation remains elevated.
The revised outlook means households will have about 40 euros more to spend per month on average, Nibud said. On Prinsjesdag, the increase had still been estimated at 1.3 percent.
Wage growth is now forecast at 3.7 percent, down from an earlier estimate of about 4.2 percent. The Centraal Planbureau expects inflation to reach 3.2 percent this year. Employer association AWVN reported that wage growth last year came in at 3.8 percent.
“That means that we can spend on average about four tens of euros more per month,” Nibud Director Mattias Gijsbertsen said. “The prediction is now that collective labor agreement wages will rise by 3.7 percent. That prevents a decline in purchasing power, but the increase is modest.”
Households earning below the minimum wage are an exception. Nibud expects their purchasing power to rise by about 2 percent this year. This group often works in low-paid, part-time jobs with high insecurity and benefits from an additional increase in the labor tax credit.
Pensioners will also see gains, though outcomes differ by pension system. Retirees with a supplementary pension under the old pension scheme are expected to see purchasing power rise by an average of 1.1 percent. Those who have moved to the new pension system since January 1 are likely to benefit more, as funds can distribute part of their reserves.
Self-employed workers without employees, known as zzp’ers, are not expected to see an increase in spending power. The self-employed tax deduction has been reduced further, leaving some with stagnant incomes.
Nibud warned that the average figures mask significant differences between households and do not account for unexpected expenses. “It is questionable whether wages in a specific sector will rise as fast as the average,” Gijsbertsen told NU.nl. “Other people may face a higher energy bill.”
He added that global economic and geopolitical uncertainty could still push prices higher. “If prices suddenly rise further, there will be little left of purchasing power. The margins are thin.”
Households whose wages remain unchanged from 2025 may also experience a drop in purchasing power. “For these people, uncertain factors, such as a severe winter, can be extra burdensome,” Gijsbertsen added. “We advise everyone to map out their finances for 2026 carefully.”
