Released Jihadists, online radicalization keep Netherlands at substantial terror threat
The Netherlands remains at a "substantial" risk of terrorism, with the national threat level held at 4, the Dutch National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) reported in its December 2025 threat assessment. The NCTV said the current threat reflects a “real chance” of an attack in the country, maintaining the level assigned six months ago.
The NCTV highlighted several jihadists who have recently been released from prison or are scheduled for release in the coming years. Many are legally required to be deported, yet most remain in the Netherlands. Lacking permanent residence or legal status, these individuals are difficult for authorities to monitor and receive no official guidance or supervision.
“Also, unlawful residence without a future perspective can lead to frustration and increased dependence, which may cause a return to old jihadist or criminal networks,” the report states.
Online radicalization among youth compounds the risk. Vulnerable youth are particularly exposed because radicalization often occurs outside the view of teachers, parents, and peers.
The NCTV warned that the jihadist movement in the Netherlands is finding a new generation in online networks, which could eventually lead to the formation of new extremist networks capable of threatening public safety.
Right-wing ideology is also reportedly increasingly normalized. Left-wing extremism is smaller and less violent, though actions such as vandalism, intimidation, and doxing during protests related to Israeli actions in Palestine have intensified compared with previous years.
Certain themes—including antisemitism, misogyny, hostility toward LGBTQ+ people, and opposition to “woke” ideas—continue to connect extremists, while nihilistic violence, described as “violence for the sake of violence,” also persists.
While organized networks continue to plan the majority of attacks, the NCTV warns that lone-actor, or “lone wolf,” incidents remain possible. These attacks often use simpler methods, such as knives or vehicles, making them harder to detect in advance and increasing the chance they could succeed.
