Lone-wolf terror threat rising as youth radicalize online, says counter-terror office

The Dutch National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security is warning that terrorist attacks in the Netherlands are increasingly committed by individuals acting alone, a shift that authorities say makes plots harder to detect and stop.

The new warning appears in the NCTV’s semiannual threat report, which also outlines growing online radicalization among young people and continued concerns about extremist themes circulating in digital spaces. The national threat level remains at 4 on a scale of 5 — classified as “substantial” — meaning there is a “real chance” of an attack in the Netherlands.

Acting NCTV chief Wieke Vink told ANP that radicalization no longer develops mainly through in-person contact. “Almost all new growth in radicalization is currently taking place online,” she said.

She explained that young people now search for content themselves and “create their own mixture in which personal circumstances play a role,” pointing to factors such as religion, political ideas, or problems at school. The organization had already raised concerns a year ago.

According to the report, personal motives increasingly shape how individuals radicalize, yet certain themes still “connect” extremists. The NCTV highlights antisemitism, misogyny, hostility toward LGBTQ+ people, and opposition to “woke” as common threads. Vink also warned about nihilistic violence, describing it as “violence for the sake of violence.”

The NCTV reports that lone-actor attacks typically involve simpler methods, such as a knife or a vehicle, and therefore tend to cause fewer casualties than attacks coordinated by organized terrorist groups. But the likelihood of such attacks succeeding is higher because they are harder to detect beforehand.

Vink said vulnerable young people are especially at risk because their exposure unfolds “outside the view of teachers, parents and peers.” Although authorities can monitor some closed online networks, she said it remains “complicated to get a grip on them.” She added that online platforms also carry responsibility to prevent young people from entering radicalized closed groups.

The overall picture has not changed dramatically compared with six months ago. The NCTV states that the Islamic State’s ability to carry out attacks in Europe has “probably temporarily decreased,” while online radicalization among jihadist-leaning youth is described as a “growing problem.”