Mild start to December likely to push winter back as white Christmas odds rise slightly
The Netherlands will enter December with weather that looks and feels more like autumn than winter, as a persistent south to southwest wind brings mild air across the country and keeps temperatures above seasonal norms, weeronline reports.
According to the monthly outlook published Sunday, daytime temperatures during the first half of December are set to range between 5 and 10 degrees, and most nights will stay well above freezing. Only during a rare clear night could temperatures slip just below 0 degrees.
The long-term probability of an official white Christmas in the Netherlands stands at only 7 percent. Based on the current outlook, forecasters estimate this year’s chance at roughly 10 to 15 percent—still low, but “a little higher than usual.” A green Christmas remains the most likely outcome, though, as the forecast notes, “you may dream of a white Christmas.”
Normally, early December averages are around 7 degrees during the day and about 2 degrees at night, meaning current forecasts put the country at or above the usual climate values measured over 1995–2024.
Uncertainty rises sharply for the second half of the month. A shift away from the current mild southerly and southwesterly flow is possible, but forecasters say it is unclear whether colder air will follow. For true winter cold, the wind would need to turn north or east to bring colder continental air into the Netherlands. At this point, it is more likely that winds will come from the northwest over the relatively warm North Sea. That would not produce deep winter cold, but it could bring chilly, wintry showers from the sea.
During the dark days before Christmas, the outlook notes that weather will remain “traditionally somber,” and the first half of December will bring “more of an autumn feeling than a winter one.”
Near Christmas, normal temperatures—around 6 degrees during the day and just above freezing at night and in the early morning—are currently the most probable scenario. The weather also appears likely to stay unsettled.
