Forecasters warn of possible rain and chilly temperatures for Sinterklaas parade

The weather outlook for Sinterklaas’s national arrival on Texel remains highly uncertain. Weeronline predicts that temperatures on the Wadden Island will stay between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius on Saturday.

Forecasters still cannot say where the rain will move across the country on Saturday. Some weather models place the boundary over the northern Netherlands, suggesting a wet arrival for Sinterklaas on Texel, while others, according to Weeronline, predict that rainfall will mainly affect the southern regions.

Despite the uncertain forecast, there is a 60 percent chance of rain nationwide on Saturday, when many local Sinterklaas parades are also planned. While temperatures on Texel are expected to remain cool during the arrival, forecasts for the south of the Netherlands range from 8 to 15 degrees.

On Sunday, when numerous other parades are set to take place, the chance of rain drops to 40 percent, with a slightly greater chance of sunshine.

The main source of uncertainty in the forecast lies in the precise position of the “boundary” (or frontal zone) between warm, moist air coming from the south and cooler, drier air from the north.

The rain is concentrated along this boundary, so even a shift of a few dozen kilometers in the weather models can decide whether Texel remains dry or is caught in heavy rain. This is why the overall chance of rain is fairly high at 60 percent, while the exact location of the rainfall remains uncertain.

Although the temperature is expected to be between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius, the cold wind and open seas will likely mean that it will feel a lot colder for the people attending the event.