Dutch government preparing for food crisis scenarios including looting and starvation
The Dutch government is allegedly working with supermarket chains, food producers, and logistics firms on a national crisis plan to ensure food security in the event of major disruptions, such as prolonged power outages or war. Internal documents reviewed by AD reveal that discussions have included extreme scenarios, including mass looting, child malnutrition, and state-enforced changes to the Dutch diet.
The draft crisis scenarios, discussed in late June, reportedly range from an “attention phase” to a worst-case “severe, long-term” food crisis, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature. In the most alarming situations, Dutch residents could face widespread food shortages, breakdowns in refrigeration systems, and an inability to meet basic needs, triggering mass burglaries and looting for food.
One scenario considers a crisis lasting more than three months. In such a case, the Netherlands may face a severe shortage of animal feed, which could force a national shift away from meat and dairy. “A dietary adjustment could be necessary,” the documents allegedly state, with the government potentially ordering a focus on cultivating grains, oilseeds, legumes, and vegetable oils.
“We can’t say yet if or how these phases will actually occur,” said a spokesperson for the ministry. “We’re still in the early stages of these talks. The most important thing is to prepare so we can act quickly if a crisis does unfold.”
The urgency is not theoretical. In October 2024, a temporary contamination of tap water in Apeldoorn caused a run on bottled water, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to short-term supply shocks.
The ongoing discussions aim to result in a Landelijk Crisisplan Voedselzekerheid, or National Food Security Crisis Plan. Similar national plans already exist for gas, oil, and electricity shortages, which determine which sectors or groups receive priority access. Until now, no such protocol existed for food.
The goal, according to participants, is to either prevent food shortages during a crisis or ensure the country can absorb shocks and recover quickly. Alongside the national government, regional safety authorities and key private-sector players—supermarkets, food manufacturers, and logistics companies—are involved in mapping out realistic threats.
Experts stress that the Netherlands and the European Union produce enough food, but they warn of critical weaknesses in supply chains.
“If you ask whether we have enough to eat in the Netherlands and Europe, the answer is yes,” André Hoogendijk, director of the arable farming association BO Akkerbouw, told AD. “We export more of most essential nutrients than we import.”
“The Netherlands produces enough potatoes, vegetables, meat, and dairy. Sure, we’d miss coffee, tea, pineapples, and oranges, and the diet would be a bit one-sided, but we would manage,” Hoogendijk added.
Petra Berkhout, an agricultural economist at Wageningen University, agreed the risks are manageable: “You need land, water, and farmers. We have all of those. And if certain crops are missing, there are solutions.”
The major vulnerability lies in logistics. “What happens if the Port of Rotterdam shuts down and diesel can’t be imported for trucks to move goods from farms to supermarket shelves?” Berkhout told AD.
Laurens Sloot, professor of retail entrepreneurship in Groningen, said decades of efficiency improvements have left food supply chains with minimal storage buffers. “Economically that makes sense and it reduces food waste,” he told the newspaper. “But if a major port or distribution center is down, problems arise quickly.”
Sloot said it was essential for the public and private sectors to coordinate: “During COVID, we saw that companies can act quickly if they’re involved early.”
The draft scenarios also address the possibility of “crisis food distribution,” especially if certain regions or groups lack adequate food. In such cases, the government could step in to coordinate supply and distribution.
“If we’re talking about crisis food distribution, I’d like to remind people of the Hunger Winter,” Hoogendijk, who is also a trained historian, told AD. “In that winter, 20,000 Dutch citizens died—not because there wasn’t enough food, but because of a railway strike and coal shortages. The mines were in the already-liberated south. It was primarily a logistical failure.”
The talks are also allegedly considering other potential disruptions that could cripple food access, such as long-term power outages and failures in electronic payment systems, which would prevent people from using debit cards in stores. Power loss could also halt food production and storage across the agricultural sector.
The food security talks are part of a broader government agenda to increase Dutch societal resilience amid growing geopolitical instability. In a recent letter to the Tweede Kamer, the outgoing cabinet warned that it is “realistic” to assume the Netherlands could be directly involved in a large-scale armed conflict in the future.
To that end, the government is also working on public campaigns to encourage households to stock emergency kits. Other efforts focus on reducing vulnerabilities in essential sectors like energy, transport, telecom, clean drinking water, research institutions, and healthcare.
