Threat or Russian sabotage rising; Direct attack on NL unlikely: Intelligence services

The threat of sabotage by Russia and pro-Russian individuals in the Netherlands has increased, but a direct military attack by Russia on NATO territory is unlikely. That is the conclusion of the Dutch intelligence services AIVD and MIVD and counter-terrorism agency NCTV in their annual threat Assessment of State Actors, NOS reports.

In a nutshell, the agencies see that the global balance of power is shifting and these are “turbulent and uncertain times. The threat from Russia remains undiminished. And the Nehterlands and other European countries can expect less military support from the United States.

According to AIVD director Erik Akerboom, the Netherlands is a “potential target country” for sabotage and espionage. Sabotage of the numerous internet cables in the North Sea could have disruptive consequences for the Netherlands. The Netherlands' electricity and water infrastructure are also attractive targets.

The general intelligence service AIVD, the military intelligence service MIVD, and NCTV see concrete indications of Russian sabotage. Pro-Russian individuals are trying to delay aid to Ukraine, for example, the agencies said. Russian ships have also been spotted and escorted off the North Sea many times in the past months.

Countries like China and Iran also continue to engage in espionage to acquire Dutch knowledge and technology, the agencies said. This espionage and sabotage could fuel a sense of unrest and insecurity in Dutch society, the agencies said, stressing the need to become more resilient.

“The threat assessment confirms that we, as the Nehterlands, cannot afford to sit idly by,” said NCTV director Pieter-Jaap Aalbersberg. “It is not a matter of whether we will experience societally disruptive effects, but when.”