Dutch financial stability threatened by trade tensions, but buffers hold, DNB says

Mounting geopolitical tensions and renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade and fiscal policy under President Donald Trump have reportedly worsened the financial stability outlook for the Netherlands, the country’s top financial watchdogs warned Tuesday.

In reports released jointly by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), the Central Planning Bureau (CPB), and the Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), officials emphasized that while the Dutch financial system remains resilient, risks are growing on multiple fronts—from markets and cybersecurity to strategic digital vulnerabilities.

Klaas Knot, president of DNB, said financial uncertainty has reached “historically high” levels, citing cyberattacks, stock market volatility, and Europe’s deep reliance on foreign technology providers. Still, he noted that Dutch financial institutions are well-capitalized and have not experienced significant disruptions from recent market swings.

“We see justified concerns globally about the impact of newly announced import tariffs,” Knot said, referencing Trump’s revived protectionist stance. “In this environment, cooperation within Europe and beyond is more vital than ever.”

Knot also defended international credit rating agencies in the wake of a controversial decision by Moody’s to cut the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had accused the agency of reacting too slowly, but Knot backed the downgrade as a forward-looking judgment based on Congressional Budget Office projections. Moody’s cited the ballooning federal deficit and flagged Trump’s proposed tax cuts as a likely accelerant.

“The agency’s role is to assess future risks,” Knot said. “This isn’t the first time politicians have taken issue with credit ratings—we saw the same when the Netherlands briefly lost its triple-A rating over a decade ago. It’s always ‘don’t shoot the messenger.’”

Beyond trade and debt concerns, DNB’s latest Financial Stability Overview highlighted growing discomfort over Europe’s dependence on non-European firms for essential digital infrastructure. Knot pointed to the dominance of two American companies that control more than 60 percent of Europe’s payment processing systems and warned this could pose a strategic vulnerability.

“Is that really a healthy dependency?” he asked. “We need to seriously consider building European alternatives.”

Similar alarm was raised about cloud services. U.S. tech giants Amazon, Google, and Microsoft remain deeply embedded in the operations of Dutch banks, businesses, and even government institutions—including DNB itself. Given the current geopolitical climate, Knot said this level of foreign control over sensitive data and services could become a liability.

“You don’t want to cause needless panic,” he said, “but we’re now being forced to think about scenarios we haven’t faced in 80 years.”

CPB Director Pieter Hasekamp and AFM Chair Laura van Geest echoed the call for stronger European coordination. “Working together in supervision is no longer a given,” Van Geest said.