Upcoming weather offers little hope for Elfstedentocht ice skating race revival
It has been 28 years since the last Elfstedentocht, the Dutch 200-kilometer ice skating race through Friesland, took place. As winters in the Netherlands grow increasingly mild, the prospect of another one grows ever slimmer, despite brief cold snaps and enduring public fascination, according to Weeronline.
The last Elfstedentocht occurred in 1997, while the infamous "hell of '63" — considered one of the most grueling editions — took place 60 years ago during one of the coldest winters in Dutch history. That winter was so severe that cars could drive across the frozen IJsselmeer.
Organizers of the Elfstedentocht require a prolonged cold spell, with daytime temperatures remaining below freezing and nights dropping to at least -10 degrees. Recent decades have brought only fleeting periods of ice formation, insufficient for the 15-centimeter ice thickness needed for the race to proceed safely.
Currently, winter weather remains limited to light frost and occasional snowfall. A brief period of snow is forecast for Sunday morning, but temperatures are expected to rise quickly, turning the snow into rain.
Next week’s outlook
Next week’s outlook offers slightly colder conditions, with overnight frost and daytime highs of 2 to 6 degrees. However, no significant ice growth is expected.
According to meteorologists, the remainder of January is uncertain, as milder air from the ocean could dominate. A continued easterly or northeasterly wind might sustain colder weather, but the likelihood of the prolonged freeze necessary for an Elfstedentocht remains low.
The last serious possibility of an Elfstedentocht came in February 2012. A severe cold snap brought an official cold wave to De Bilt, with daytime temperatures remaining below freezing for five days and nighttime lows below -10 degrees for three of those days. Despite these conditions, the race was ultimately canceled due to insufficient ice thickness, worsened by snow that hampered ice growth.
“Everything seemed to align, but the thaw came just a bit too early,” officials said at the time.
Since 2012, only regional cold waves have occurred, such as in January 2013 and February 2021. These allowed for temporary skating on lakes and canals, but conditions never approached what is needed for the Elfstedentocht.
The increasing rarity of the Elfstedentocht is tied to climate change. Dutch winters have become milder, with fewer snow days and ice days. According to the KNMI, the probability of the extended freeze necessary for the race is now just 8 percent. By 2050, that likelihood could drop to 1 percent, and by the end of the century, the chances may be negligible.
However, experts note that brief cold spells are still possible, even in a warming climate. The 2021 cold snap allowed widespread skating on lakes, including in Sneek, a key town along the Elfstedentocht route.
