One in six Dutch believe right-wing extremist population replacement theory

About one in six Dutch people believe in the population replacement theory. This theory, which the AIVD labels as a right-wing extremist conspiracy theory, states that the elite is deliberately trying to replace the white Western population with non-Western immigrants. This is evident from a survey by Kieskompas and ANP that was completed by almost 15,000 people.

Voters for Forum voor Democratie most often believe this theory. About three-quarters of the people who voted for the far-right party in the parliamentary elections agree with the statement. PVV and BBB voters follow at a distance, with 42 and 25 percent, respectively. Among the supporters of the other coalition parties, NSC and VVD, the share is lower, with both around 9 percent. Hardly any D66, GroenLinks-PvdA, and PvdD voters believe in the theory.

The belief differs not only with voting behavior but also per province. In Zeeland (26 percent), Friesland, and Limburg (both around 20 percent), relatively most people agreed with the statement that the original Dutch population was deliberately being replaced by non-Western immigrants. In Groningen, this is the lowest, at less than 12 percent. The group of people who don’t believe in the theory has a majority in all provinces.

Earlier this summer, PVV Ministers Marjolein Faber (Asylum and Migration) and Reinette Klever (Foreign Trade and Development Aid) came under fire around their appointment as Ministers because they had used the term replacement in the past. They later distanced themselves from the statements, Klever with some reluctance.

Geert Wilders called the replacement theory “abject” at the time. However, he claimed that it was not racist to express concerns about how the Netherlands was changing because more ethnically diverse people live here.

As early as 2022, the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) called the normalization of the replacement theory a “worrying development.”

The survey was conducted between late June and early July and completed by 14,710 adult Dutch citizens. They responded to the statement, “I think that part of the political elite is deliberately trying to replace the original Dutch population with non-Western immigrants.”