Polls show tight race between VVD and NSC with GL-PvdA just behind as elections near

With one week remaining before the parliamentary elections, the latest poll by EenVandaag and Ipsos published on Tuesday shows no changes among the three largest parties. VVD and New Social Contract (NSC) remain neck-and-neck, with leftwing alliance GroenLinks-PvdA just behind them. Farmers party BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) keeps losing support.

EenVandaag observed that the increased media attention for the elections has not significantly swayed most voters, as the major parties have maintained relative stability over the past few weeks. The VVD is projected to have 28 seats, NSC stands at 26, and GroenLinks-PvdA is expected to get 23 seats, a gain of one compared to the last poll at the end of October. The PVV also remains steady, with 17 seats predicted.

After a crushing victory in the provincial election in March 2023, the BBB is now projected to have nine seats, three less than in the last poll. The pro-farmers party was still polling at around 23 seats just in June in the last poll before the Tweede Kamer went on summer recess. In the last Tweede Kamer elections in 2021, the party secured a single seat.

The party led by Caroline van der Plas has been losing support since Pieter Omtzigt announced his participation in the elections with his party NSC, and nitrogen has receded from the political spotlight. EenVandaag also attributed the loss of seats to recent dissatisfaction with the party's figureheads. A survey suggests that some view Van der Plas as “shaky” in debates, while others consider prime minister candidate Mona Keijzer as “invisible" during the campaign.

D66, the big winner of the previous parliamentary election together with the VVD, now stands at nine seats, one more than in the previous poll but considerably fewer than the 24 seats they won in the 2021 elections under Sigrid Kaag's leadership.

The CDA is currently projected to secure four seats, a significant decrease from the 15 seats they won in the last parliamentary elections.

As the elections draw closer, voter certainty has increased, with 40 percent of voters now confident in their voting decision and party choice. This marks an increase from two weeks ago when only a third of voters felt certain about their choice.