Pollster says Omtzigt party could become the country’s biggest in next election

Pieter Omtzigt’s new party Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC), has a solid chance of becoming the largest party in parliament in the election on November 22, according to Maurice de Hond’s latest poll. The VVD and PvdA/GroenLinks would come a close second and third.

De Hond’s poll was held on Saturday, so before Omtzigt announced his new party on Monday morning. The then-still potential party got 27 seats, followed by the VVD with 25 and PvdA/GroenLinks with 24. So the NSC may well follow in the BBB’s footsteps as the newcomer that shakes up the political landscape. The farmers' party won massively in the Provincial Council elections earlier this year.

The pollster stressed that Omtzigt’s election program, campaign, and list of candidates could still mean major shifts in voting intentions. “But it is also true that no less than 35% of the Dutch currently give the new party a good chance of a vote. There is certainly also a potential of more than 27 seats.”

The VVD has been climbing in the poll since Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced his departure, and the party announced that outgoing Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgöz would succeed him. PvdA/GroenLinks remained relatively stable after the announcement of Frans Timmermans as leader gave the left-wing bloc a boost.

The BBB has been losing support as asylum policy - the reason behind the Rutte IV Cabinet’s collapse - pushed nitrogen and agriculture somewhat to the background of voters’ minds. With Omtzigt’s party participating, the BBB stands at 12 seats in the polls. In the previous poll on 2 July 2023, the party had 27 seats. Many BBB voters may vote for Omtzigt instead. If Omtzigt weren’t participating, the BBB would have 21 seats in Saturday’s poll.

The populist PVV has benefited from the asylum policy’s return to the spotlight, but the party may also lose many voters to Omtzigt. With the NSC in the running, the PVV stands at 15 seats in the poll, without at 19.

If Omtzigt weren’t in the running, the VVD would have three more seats and PvdA/GroenLinks two more in the latest poll.