Latest poll has VVD, BBB, left-wing bloc on top, but only if MP Omtzigt doesn't run

The latest poll by Maurice de Hond shows that the outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s VVD, farmers movement BBB, and left-wing bloc PvdA/GroenLinks as the biggest parties, each achieving 25 seats in parliament if the elections were held today. But that is only if independent MP Pieter Omtzigt doesn’t decide to run with his own party, De Hond said.

If Omtzigt sets up his own party for the parliamentary elections on November 22, necessitated by the Rutte IV Cabinet’s collapse earlier this month, he would by far be the biggest party in the Tweede Kamer with 29 seats. The VVD and PvdA/GroenLinks would follow with 23 and 22 seats, respectively, and then the BBB with 15 seats.

Should Omtzigt run, he would take ten seats from the BBB, three from PvdA/GroenLinks, three from the PVV, and two or less from the other parties.

De Hond stressed that these poll results are still far from certain, firstly because Omtzigt hasn’t announced what he would do yet, and secondly, because the election campaign still needs to be held. PvdA/GroenLinks, D66, and CDA haven’t even announced who would lead them in the elections yet.

De Hond expects the campaign to have an even bigger influence than in previous elections due to the many new party leaders and candidates to be Prime Minister now that Rutte has announced his departure.

That was also visible in this week’s poll. The VVD announced that caretaker Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgoz was a candidate to lead the party in the election. That, combined with the Cabinet’s fall a week and a half ago, resulted in the VVD jumping five seats in the polls compared to two weeks ago.

Except for the ChristenUnie, the Rutte IV coalition parties are all set to lose big in the upcoming elections. Even if Omtzigt doesn’t run and the VVD gets 25 seats, that would still be nine fewer than the 34 seats the party got in the 2021 parliamentary election. The D66 would drop 15 seats to nine, and the CDA would lose eight seats ending up with seven if the elections were held today. ChristenUnie would lose one seat, dropping to four.