Farmers' party shooting up in polls; Coalition in trouble

Farmers' party BBB is gaining massive support in the polls, according to the latest Peilingwijzer. The party now represented by one seat in parliament would get 14 to 19 seats if elections were held today. Three of the four coalition parties are losing support, NOS reports.

That puts the BBB at about the same size as the PVV (14 to 18 seats) and D66 (13 to 17), and well above other established parties like GroenLinks (9 to 13), PvdA (8 to 12), and the CDA (6 to 10).

The only party still clearly bigger than BBB in the polls is Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s VVD at 24 to 29 parliamentary seats. Though the VVD, too, is losing support, dropping about seven seats compared to the current lower house of the Dutch parliament.

Of the four coalition parties – VVD (-7), D66 (-9), CDA (-7), and ChristenUnie (+1) - only the ChristenUnie isn’t losing support still standing at 5 to 7 seats. According to research by I&O Research and Ipsos/EenVandaag, the VVD and CDA are losing supporters to the BBB and other right-wing parties like JA21 (5 to 9 seats). But most of the BBB’s supporters are coming from people who did not vote in last year’s elections.

According to the political scientist and compiler of the Peilingwijzer Tom Louwerse, the BBB is benefiting from the nitrogen crisis currently dominating the political agenda. “It will be interesting to see what happens if the attention for this decreases again and, for example, immigration becomes a major issue again. An issue that right-wing voters associate more with parties like PVV, FvD, and JA21.”

The Peilingwijzer is a weighted average of polls by I&O Research, Ipsos/EenVandaag, and Kantar.