Former Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot seen as leading candidate for ECB presidency

Klaas Knot, who previously led De Nederlandsche Bank, is widely seen as the front-runner to succeed Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists. If appointed, he would be only the second Dutchman to take on the ECB’s highest office, following its inaugural president, Wim Duisenberg.

Klaas Knot stepped down as president of De Nederlandsche Bank last year after a 14-year tenure that also included a seat on the ECB’s governing council. In the ranking of possible successors, he is followed by Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos, now head of the Bank for International Settlements, while Germany’s Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel occupies third position.

Despite leading the ranking, Klaas Knot is not viewed as the strongest choice by economists. They instead consider Isabel Schnabel, a German economist and member of the ECB’s Executive Board, the best candidate to take over from Lagarde when her mandate expires in October 2027. De Cos, previously head of the Bank of Spain, follows in second place, narrowly ahead of Knot.

Speculation about Lagarde’s eventual successor has been ongoing for months, most often pointing to Knot and De Cos. Both enjoy strong reputations and have received public praise from Lagarde. She has also spoken positively about Isabel Schnabel, noting last month that there are “many very good candidates,” and that Schnabel is among them.

In addition to the front-runners, François Villeroy de Galhau of France, who leads the French central bank, and Italy’s Fabio Panetta, the governor of the Italian central bank, are also widely seen as credible contenders to succeed Lagarde.

Olli Rehn of Finland remains another potential candidate, having previously placed second in the contest for the ECB’s vice presidency. The economists’ survey comes in the wake of the appointment of Croatian central banker Boris Vujčić as the ECB’s new vice president.