Coalition mediator sees no clear path to majority or minority Cabinet as talks drag on

Informateur Sybrand Buma, the mediator appointed to explore possible governing coalitions, said he sees “no viable majority coalition” emerging, nor a minority coalition with sufficient backing to function effectively. He made the remarks on Thursday after meeting with party leaders.

Buma plans to sit down on Friday with the leaders of the five largest factions in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Dutch parliament, with the exception of the PVV, to discuss how to proceed. He said it is too soon to describe the situation as a stalemate. “That’s exactly what I’m trying to avoid,” he noted.

Over the past few days, party leaders have been pressed about the prospect of forming a minority Cabinet, an option that looks increasingly plausible as the VVD maintains its refusal to join a coalition with GroenLinks–PvdA. Nonetheless, the VVD, JA21, and GroenLinks–PvdA all say they still prefer a majority government.

Buma said there is no workable route to a majority coalition as long as the VVD refuses to work with GroenLinks–PvdA. A smaller, minority Cabinet, potentially led by D66, the CDA, and the VVD, is likewise not in sight.

Parties like JA21 and GroenLinks–PvdA are unwilling for now to commit to the kind of ongoing support needed to keep such a government afloat. That commitment is crucial, he noted, given the substantial tasks and budget cuts awaiting the next administration.

Buma said the center-right coalition favored by VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz is not realistic either. A lineup of D66, the CDA, the VVD, and JA21 would leave them stuck at 75 seats, not enough for a majority. On top of that, D66 has made clear it has reservations about teaming up with JA21.

Buma said he intends to resume negotiations on Friday, even though he knows there’s a real chance the parties will start clashing. Jesse Klaver of GroenLinks–PvdA has already accused the VVD of displaying “arrogance of power.” Still, Buma argues that the government-formation talks won’t advance unless the parties are willing to take some risks.

“It’s complicated,” said D66 party leader Rob Jetten and CDA leader Henri Bontenbal after their talks with Buma. All other party leaders had met with Buma in the days beforehand. Neither Jetten nor Bontenbal suggested they see a clear path toward restarting political cooperation, instead deferring to Buma for a way forward.

The pair welcomed the generally positive reactions to the joint “agenda” they presented, though not every party was enthusiastic. VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz noted that “many issues” on asylum are still missing.

Jesse Klaver of GroenLinks–PvdA said repeatedly that the proposals “must be greener and more social.” JA21’s Joost Eerdmans listed several points that run “directly counter” to his party’s program, including the per-kilometer road charge.