Dutch households can expect lower energy bills next year: ING

Dutch households can expect lower energy bills next year. According to ING Research, households with average energy use are likely to pay roughly 4 percent less for gas and electricity.

Bank analysts attribute this to lower variable energy supply rates. They note that international gas supplies are set to rise sharply with the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity. The increase in capacity mainly comes from major exporters such as the United States and Qatar, as well as the expansion of European import terminals, including in Germany and Finland.

Experts say this trend will counterbalance already announced increases in fixed charges and the gas tax. Rising gas taxes and higher fixed charges are a direct outcome of the Netherlands’ climate policy. The government leverages the gas tax to incentivize households to reduce gas consumption and adopt greener alternatives, like heat pumps. Households that have fully switched off gas could see their energy bills fall even more, with reductions of up to 9 percent possible.

ING’s calculations are based on steady energy use. Households that consume much more electricity or gas next year than this year should expect their bills to rise accordingly.

ING also looked at energy affordability, measuring costs relative to household income. This year, an average household spends roughly 4.4 percent of its disposable income on energy. By 2026, that share is expected to fall to about 4.1 percent.

The expected 4 percent decrease mainly affects households with a variable energy contract or those entering a new fixed contract in 2026. Households that locked in long-term fixed contracts in 2023 or early 2024 at record-high rates will not benefit from the drop until their current contract ends.