Dutch economy grew 0.4% in Q3; Strongest growth since end-2024

The Dutch economy experienced slightly accelerated growth in the third quarter, seeing a 0.4 percent increase in gross domestic product (GDP). That is the largest increase since the end of last year, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported based on an initial estimate. In Q1 and Q2, the economy grew by 0.3 percent. Growth in the last quarter of 2024 was 0.5 percent.

“This is a positive surprise,” responded Peter Hein van Mulligen, chief economist at CBS. “Most banks, including myself, were expecting a very small increase, but this is actually quite a good figure. This is the eighth consecutive quarter of growth, and 0.4 percent is precisely the average. If the economy grows at this rate for a year, that still means growth of 2 percent. That’s not bad at all for a prosperous country with a very high GDP.”

Van Mulligen called it positive that almost all sectors contributed to the growth. Exports and government spending made the biggest contributions. “In terms of exports, this is surprising in light of the geopolitical tensions. But it’s still very difficult to say what the effect of the US tariffs will be. Companies may have anticipated this and exported more to the US. It could also be reflected in next year’s figures; the threat isn’t entirely over.”

Households spent more on items like clothing and transportation from July to September. Their spending rose by 0.3 percent compared to three months earlier, adjusted for price increases. “During the election campaign, we heard concerns that people wouldn’t feel the increase in purchasing power in their wallets, but they behave as if they do. We went out more and bought more things,” said Van Mulligen.

The government spent more on healthcare and defense. “We may already see some of the new focus on defense there, but it’s too early to say,” the economist said.

The investment category was the only one to show a substantial decrease. This was partly due to previous large expenditures on ships and aircraft, among other things. But less money was also spent on construction.

“One thing the parties agreed on during the election campaign was that more construction is needed. Less investment won’t help, because then it will have to be built up again,” said Van Mulligen. He noted that the business community, in particular, would benefit from a swift Cabinet formation.